1870 South Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1930 3,600 sqft lot Est $95k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House for rent-Rented at time of contract-No utilities included

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Full basement
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL ATTIC
• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $850; list at $115k implies a 13429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.66%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1870 South Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,320 (0%)	0mo	$116,000	$88	100
1852 Ontario Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,273 (-4%)	3mo	$85,000	$67	83
2456 South Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,380 (+4%)	2mo	$120,000	$87	77
2434 Weston Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+6%)	4mo	$170,000	$121	74
1317 Niagara Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-1%)	1mo	$28,000	$21	68
1812 Pierce Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-13%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	64
1013 13th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+2%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	61
1327 Willow Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,444 (+9%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	60
1512 Willow Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-13%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	60
2189 Seneca Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-15%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	55
2915 Porter Rd	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,484 (+12%)	1mo	$171,720	$116	47
724 17th St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,179 (-11%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-346
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $23,452
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,717/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	0.19mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	0.19mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	16d	1	0.30mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	43d	1	0.37mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.45mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	16d	1	0.54mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.56mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.62mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.67mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.74mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	1d	1	0.92mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.11mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.17mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	1.17mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	43d	1	1.18mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.20mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	1.26mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.30mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.43mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2026-03-03
   historical
4. 2025-09-22
   price $115,000
5. 2025-09-03
   listed $124,900 Active
6. 2021-11-28
   soldstatus $850 63-char remark

   Show marketing remark (63 chars)

   House for rent-Rented at time of contract-No utilities included

7. 2021-11-27
   listed $850 63-char remark

   Show marketing remark (63 chars)

   House for rent-Rented at time of contract-No utilities included

8. 2021-08-26
   soldstatus $68,100
9. 2021-08-18
   soldstatus $68,100 Closed Sale or Rented
10. 2021-06-30
    status Pending Sale
11. 2021-06-08
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2021-06-01
    listed $59,900 Active
13. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,717
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $3,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+215.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-28 Sold (MLS) $850 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-27 Listed $850 WNYREIS
• 2021-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $68,100 Public Records
• 2021-08-18 Sold (MLS) $68,100 WNYREIS
• 2021-06-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-06-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-06-01 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,717 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.