20201 Lancaster St · Harper Woods, MI 48225

$190,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Grosse Pointe Public Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #24 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,571 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,839
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -3.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19935 Damman St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-3%)	3mo	$186,000	$123	71
20488 Fleetwood Dr	0.21mi	4/1.5	1,401 (-10%)	4mo	$189,900	$136	68
20879 Hunt Club Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,621 (+4%)	3mo	$210,000	$130	62
20647 Kenmore Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,670 (+7%)	9mo	$225,000	$135	56
2158 Lennon St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,570 (+0%)	6mo	$321,300	$205	55
21101 Beaufait St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (+1%)	9mo	$283,000	$179	54
2230 Hawthorne Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,453 (-7%)	5mo	$250,000	$172	44
20643 Danbury Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,721 (+10%)	9mo	$203,000	$118	44
21167 Lancaster St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (-9%)	11mo	$215,000	$151	39
19061 Collinson Ave	0.71mi	4/1.5	1,769 (+13%)	10mo	$232,000	$131	35
2142 Lennon St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (+11%)	9mo	$285,000	$164	34
21175 Hunt Club Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+14%)	8mo	$185,000	$104	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,738
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,682
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48225

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20270 Hollywood St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	2d	1	0.45mi
1992 Hawthorne Rd Grosse Pointe Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1071	$2,100	$1.96	10d	1	0.92mi
1883 Lochmoor Blvd Grosse Pointe Woods, MI	3.0	2.5	1744	$2,900	$1.66	2d	1	0.93mi
20461 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,399	$1.27	15d	1	1.15mi
19435 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,300	$1.13	17d	1	1.19mi
16242 Bringard Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,300	$0.96	5d	1	1.37mi
10870 Marne St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,100	$0.95	17d	1	1.39mi
20926 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	44d	1	1.41mi
18530 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.5	1396	$1,375	$0.98	17d	1	1.41mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	1.43mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $190,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $190,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $199,900 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    * * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don't miss your chance to make it yours!

17. 2026-05-11
    price $199,900 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    * * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink —perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don’t miss your chance to make it yours!

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $204,000 Active 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    * * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don't miss your chance to make it yours!

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $204,000 Active 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    * * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don't miss your chance to make it yours!

20. 2026-04-07
    historical $204,000 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    * * * Open House Saturday 5/16/26 12-2pm and Sunday 5/17/26 12-2pm * * * Beautifully Updated Home in the Grosse Pointe School District! Step into this move-in ready property featuring a brand new kitchen setup with a new dishwasher, oven, garbage disposal, and new sink - perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The fully refreshed bathroom includes a new vanity, sink, fixtures, and shower diverter for a clean, updated feel. Enjoy the comfort of a spacious living room prepped for two ceiling fans and a cozy wood-burning fireplace with an existing gas line. With thoughtful updates throughout, this home is ready for its next owner, don't miss your chance to make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 61.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $2,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grosse Pointe Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625740
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $89,975
• Composite: 56.51/100
• National rank: #1152
• State rank: #24 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harper Woods

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper Woods, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 16,098
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 16,098
• Household income: $61,750
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.40%
• Current HPI: 181.4961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $204,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $204,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $204,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · -74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.