2845 N Lakefront Dr · Hernando, FL 34442

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2023 0.46 ac lot Est $159k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMPACT FEES PAID!! CLEARED, POWER AND WELL. 2 LOTS. HOMES OR MOBILES. VERY CLOSE TO LAKE HERNANDO , BOAT RAMP AND BEACH.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large primary suite
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BRAND-NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• 6-FOOT FARM-STYLE FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Residential — Manufactured Home; Lot size approximately 0.46 acre (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); One well and one septic on the property; Unfurnished; No CDD; not homestead; Zoning: CLRMH
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Home faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Whole house reverse osmosis water purification system
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,693 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,592
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2922 N Wheaton Pt	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	10mo	$165,000	$118	75
2451 N Bucknell Ter	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,356 (+1%)	15mo	$99,500	$73	57
4759 E Amherst St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	19mo	$162,000	$125	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-50,165
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-61,300
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,103/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,940

Max offer price $186,955

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-152	+0% $-215	+5% $-279	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-281	+0% $-215	+5% $-150	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-158	base $-215	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,103 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,103 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,103
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1507.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Listed $7,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-04 Sold (MLS) $27,000 RACC
• 2005-10-12 Listed $33,000 RACC
• 1998-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1979-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1978-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,103 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.