1268 Crymes Rd · Lunenburg, VA 23947

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1947 12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Isolated-open and wooded-personal property conveys-keys in office-400ft to Meherrin River-Very large workshop full of tools that convey

Key facts

• Meherrin river
• Large workshop
• 11.7 acre lot

Tags

• WOODED PERSONAL PROPERTY
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• MEHERRIN RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#452 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.27%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,019
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,626
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23947

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$320
• After-tax cash flow: $2,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lunenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102310
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $37,728
• Composite: 38.6/100
• National rank: #4162
• State rank: #110 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lunenburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #19358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,195

Population outlook (Lunenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,367 people
• By 2030: 10,757 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 9,464 · -16.7%
• By 2050: 8,329 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 6,292 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 4,575 · -59.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lunenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.8) · D 38.3% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.8 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+17.6 2012: R+5.0 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.08%
• Current HPI: 171.9927
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — SCAR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $125,000 SCAR

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $239 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.