2406 Buckingham Rd · Burlington, NC 27217

$135,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $218k · 38% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS A FIXER UPPER. NEEDS EVERYTHING!!! PRICED ACCORDING. BRICK/VINYL. FIREPLACE/GAS LOGS. 13x30 INGROUND POOL WHICH NEEDS LINER. FENCED BACK YARD. 8x16 WIRED UTILILTY BLDG. STORAGE RM. Offer subkject to 3rd party approval.

Key facts

• Wired utility bldg
• Fenced back yard
• Inground pool

Tags

• INGROUND POOL
• FENCED BACK YARD
• WIRED UTILITY BLDG
• STORAGE RM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools F, crime F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.61%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2923 Mckinney St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,229 (+3%)	10mo	$210,000	$171	78
2725 Westchester Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+5%)	9mo	$256,397	$205	72
2545 Hyde St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,139 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$189	70
2821 Westchester Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+14%)	2mo	$230,000	$168	69
2570 Oakcrest Ct	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,165 (-3%)	3mo	$163,500	$140	67
2340 Buckingham Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$248,500	$183	66
205 Woodhaven Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+14%)	11mo	$280,000	$205	63
808 E Hanover Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-1%)	13mo	$215,000	$182	57
2305 Mckinney St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,128 (-6%)	9mo	$149,000	$132	50
2821 Regent Park Ln	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+13%)	10mo	$250,000	$185	48
2509 Dare St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+14%)	8mo	$250,000	$182	45
2512 Mckinney St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,373 (+15%)	10mo	$197,700	$144	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $398
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,976
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27217

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E Parker St Unit J Graham, NC	2.0	1.0	850	$1,125	$1.32	13d	1	0.95mi
116 E Main St Haw River, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,975	$1.94	13d	22	1.18mi
1900 Morningside Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	13d	1	1.19mi
632 New St Graham, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $135,000 Active
18. 2012-10-11
    soldstatus $60,500
19. 2011-06-25
    listed $69,900
20. 2005-04-24
    historical
21. 2004-10-25
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$650
• After-tax cash flow: $4,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 41,406
• Household income: $51,950
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.45%
• Current HPI: 259.8107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+22.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $135,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2011-06-25 Listed $69,900 TMLS
• 2005-04-24 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2004-10-25 Listed $109,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.