120 Dogwood Dr · Tool, TX 75163

$293,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 350 Days on market

Built 2023 7,144 sqft lot $161/sqft · 6% above area Est $278k · 6% over $13/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Tile fireplace
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• TOP-OF-THE-LINE APPLIANCES
• TILE FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $294k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 88839% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.54%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,166
• List price: $293,500
• Delta: 5.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Driftwood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-6%)	2mo	$317,000	$184	82
115 Driftwood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-7%)	8mo	$259,900	$153	80
105 Parkside Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,925 (+6%)	3mo	$329,900	$171	78
109 Dogwood Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-9%)	7mo	$275,000	$166	76
125 Quail Run Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+7%)	8mo	$370,000	$190	76
127 Parkside Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-13%)	0mo	$298,900	$188	74
119 Driftwood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-10%)	8mo	$254,900	$155	73
110 Dogwood Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-12%)	8mo	$279,000	$174	71
113 Dogwood Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (-11%)	5mo	$295,000	$182	70
307 Beachside Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (+10%)	0mo	$529,900	$265	64
109 Quail Run Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,050 (+12%)	3mo	$349,900	$171	64
202 Morning Dove Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-12%)	5mo	$269,900	$168	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $305,083
• Equity at exit: $100,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $706,888
• Equity at exit: $134,261

Cash invested: $82,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75163

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,291/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,788
• Net cashflow: $4,694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,572

Max offer price $293,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,860	-5% $4,777	+0% $4,694	+5% $4,611	+10% $4,528
Rent	-10% $4,021	-5% $4,358	+0% $4,694	+5% $5,030	+10% $5,367
Rate	-1.0pp $4,842	-0.5pp $4,769	base $4,694	+0.5pp $4,618	+1.0pp $4,541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,375
• Closing costs: $8,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Chestnut Dr Unit 1301590P Tool, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$8,514	$4.50	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $293,500 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,500 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,500 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,500 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,500 Active 346 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $293,500 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $293,500 Active 343 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 338 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 330 DOM
15. 2025-09-29
    status Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

16. 2025-09-02
    price $295,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

17. 2025-07-22
    price $305,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

18. 2025-06-28
    price $330,000 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

19. 2025-06-27
    listed $330 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    Nestled amidst whispering pines and blooming hydrangeas, this stunning home is a harmonious blend of classic charm and modern luxury. From the moment you step through the doorway, you’re greeted by natural light cascading through oversized windows, dancing across polished Tile floors. The heart of the home is a chef’s kitchen—fully equipped with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and top-of-the-line appliances—seamlessly flowing into a warm, inviting living area with a tile fireplace and vaulted ceilings. French doors open to a sun-drenched patio. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of peace, beauty, and refined living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,291 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,371 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,080/yr (+$90/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $102,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,441
• − Property taxes: −$4,291
• − Insurance: −$1,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,173
• − Management: −$8,173
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,538
• Taxable income: $54,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,183
• After-tax cash flow: $43,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Arabic 10% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Current HPI: 211.6125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $330 NTREIS

Property tax history

+52.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,291 · -27.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.