613 Orange Ln · Laguna Vista, TX 78578

$425,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1978 0.38 ac lot $127/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 3,342 sq. ft. of living space on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot, just minutes from South Padre Island. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room with a wet bar, a luxurious master suite featuring a steam shower and spa tub, and an inviting layout perfect for entertaining. Outdoors, enjoy a heated in-ground swimming pool, jacuzzi, and a versatile pool house that can be used as a guest suite, gym, or changing quarters. The property also includes a large storage shed, mature shade trees, and no HOA fees. Located in the heart of Laguna Vista, this elegant home blends comfort, style, and resort-like amenities in a peaceful coastal community.

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Pool house
• Steam shower

Tags

• WET BAR
• STEAM SHOWER
• SPA TUB
• HEATED IN-GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• JACUZZI
• POOL HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#590 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,044,748
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -59.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Beach Blvd	0.62mi	4/3.0	3,341 (-0%)	23mo	$1,500,000	$449	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-56,437
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-33,277
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78578

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,296/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,498

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $316	+0% $196	+5% $76	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $48	+0% $196	+5% $344	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $304	base $196	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Ocelot Trail Rd Laguna Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	2407	$3,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.90mi
154 Oleander Dr Laguna Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	3255	$4,200	$1.29	14d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 284 DOM
16. 2026-01-21
    price $425,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 3,342 sq. ft. of living space on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot, just minutes from South Padre Island. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with a wet bar, a luxurious master suite featuring a steam shower and spa tub, and an inviting layout perfect for entertaining. Outdoors, enjoy a heated in-ground swimming pool, jacuzzi, and a versatile pool house that can be used as a guest suite, gym, or changing quarters. The property also includes a large storage shed, mature shade trees, and no HOA fees. Located in the heart of Laguna Vista, this elegant home blends comfort, style, and resort-like amenities in a peaceful coastal community.

17. 2026-01-21
    price $425,000 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 3,342 sq. ft. of living space on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot, just minutes from South Padre Island. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with a wet bar, a luxurious master suite featuring a steam shower and spa tub, and an inviting layout perfect for entertaining. Outdoors, enjoy a heated in-ground swimming pool, jacuzzi, and a versatile pool house that can be used as a guest suite, gym, or changing quarters. The property also includes a large storage shed, mature shade trees, and no HOA fees. Located in the heart of Laguna Vista, this elegant home blends comfort, style, and resort-like amenities in a peaceful coastal community.

18. 2025-08-19
    listed $435,000 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 3,342 sq. ft. of living space on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot, just minutes from South Padre Island. Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room with a wet bar, a luxurious master suite featuring a steam shower and spa tub, and an inviting layout perfect for entertaining. Outdoors, enjoy a heated in-ground swimming pool, jacuzzi, and a versatile pool house that can be used as a guest suite, gym, or changing quarters. The property also includes a large storage shed, mature shade trees, and no HOA fees. Located in the heart of Laguna Vista, this elegant home blends comfort, style, and resort-like amenities in a peaceful coastal community.

19. 2025-08-09
    listed $435,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    This stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 3,342 sq. ft. of living space on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot, just minutes from South Padre Island. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with a wet bar, a luxurious master suite featuring a steam shower and spa tub, and an inviting layout perfect for entertaining. Outdoors, enjoy a heated in-ground swimming pool, jacuzzi, and a versatile pool house that can be used as a guest suite, gym, or changing quarters. The property also includes a large storage shed, mature shade trees, and no HOA fees. Located in the heart of Laguna Vista, this elegant home blends comfort, style, and resort-like amenities in a peaceful coastal community.

20. 2024-09-09
    price $480,000
21. 2024-09-09
    price $480,000
22. 2024-08-08
    price $500,000
23. 2024-07-12
    price $500,000
24. 2024-01-21
    price $535,000
25. 2023-11-17
    listed $525,000 Active
26. 2023-09-18
    price $530,000
27. 2023-05-04
    status Active
28. 2023-05-03
    listed $550,000 Active
29. 2016-10-18
    soldstatus
30. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus
31. 2016-08-31
    listed $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,296 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,778 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,482/yr (+$290/mo · 81.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,296
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,597
• − Management: −$3,597
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Point Isabel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835250
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,115
• Composite: 18.78/100
• National rank: #8871
• State rank: #756 of 826 in TX

Livability — Laguna Vista

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #590
• US rank: #11249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laguna Vista, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,231

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 35% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.69%
• Current HPI: 222.9501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $425,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $425,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $435,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-09 Listed $435,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $480,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $480,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $500,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $500,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-01-21 Price Changed $535,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $525,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $530,000 SPIBOR
• 2023-05-04 Relisted — SPIBOR
• 2023-05-03 Listed $550,000 SPIBOR
• 2016-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $219,900 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,296 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.