19838 Laurel Trail Dr · Houston, TX 77433

$209,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2002 5,784 sqft lot $139/sqft · 7% below area Est $225k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Functional layout
• Spacious living room

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• RECENTLY UPDATED ROOF
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Duryea El (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 827 students, 83% FRL); Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,401
• List price: $209,999
• Delta: -6.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19943 Sycamore Valley Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,519 (+1%)	2mo	$225,000	$148	92
7507 Sendera Oaks Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+3%)	1mo	$235,000	$151	74
7351 Village Lake Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,364 (-10%)	4mo	$229,000	$168	72
7343 Village Lake Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,350 (-11%)	4mo	$212,900	$158	70
19822 Creston Cove Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-14%)	2mo	$210,000	$161	64
19134 S Whimsey Dr S	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	2mo	$229,000	$147	62
7402 Bering Landing Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+8%)	0mo	$249,990	$153	62
19956 Sutton Falls Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	55
19207 Desert Moon Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+8%)	0mo	$243,000	$149	54
7514 Appleberry Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	4mo	$237,800	$148	51
19142 S Whimsey Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-13%)	2mo	$225,000	$170	47
7602 Yucca Field Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-11%)	0mo	$238,000	$177	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-46,896
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-72,527
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,287/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $190,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-50	+0% $-110	+5% $-169	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-192	+0% $-110	+5% $-27	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-56	base $-110	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19943 Crested Hill Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,621	$1.35	9d	1	0.20mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	45d	1	0.29mi
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	45d	1	0.31mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	6d	1	0.32mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	45d	1	0.32mi
19758 Crossfalls Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,070	$0.96	46d	1	0.34mi
19903 Mountain Dale Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,896	$1.40	1d	1	0.50mi
19939 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,105	$2.26	3d	15	0.50mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,976	$1.14	1d	1	0.54mi
20211 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	0d	25	0.60mi
20217 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,565	$1.41	45d	1	0.64mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	14d	1	0.75mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.84mi
7323 Livery Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,780	$1.17	23d	1	0.91mi
19738 Tacoma Bluff Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2238	$5,000	$2.23	23d	1	1.01mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	12d	1	1.02mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	9d	1	1.02mi
20519 Keegans Ledge Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	1.03mi
7750 Shavano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2152	$2,065	$0.96	4d	1	1.04mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	58	1.06mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	1.13mi
8119 Almera Falls Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,905	$1.25	3d	1	1.13mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	45d	1	1.16mi
18531 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,799	$1.06	23d	1	1.18mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	45d	1	1.22mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	23d	1	1.24mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	1.25mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	45d	1	1.25mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	4d	1	1.26mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	14d	21	1.26mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	45d	1	1.28mi
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	5d	1	1.30mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	45d	1	1.33mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	1d	41	1.33mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	45d	1	1.42mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	21d	1	1.46mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	14d	1	1.47mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	26d	1	1.48mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $209,999 Pending 180 DOM
2. 2026-05-20
   price $209,999 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

3. 2026-04-07
   price $227,500 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

4. 2026-03-16
   status Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

5. 2026-03-12
   status Pending 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

6. 2025-12-01
   listed $229,900 Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful and affordable first-time home in Cypress, Texas! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious living room, a large backyard perfect for gatherings, and a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and a recently updated roof from 2022. A great opportunity for first-time buyers in a growing community!

7. 2025-06-06
   historical
8. 2025-05-11
   price $243,000
9. 2025-02-26
   listed $245,000 Active
10. 2018-11-05
    soldstatus
11. 2018-11-02
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2018-10-03
    status Pending
13. 2018-10-03
    status Pending, Continue to Show
14. 2018-09-04
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,287 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,287 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$6,287
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $209,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $227,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $243,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2018-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,287 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.