34644 W Harbor Dr #45061 · Long Neck, DE 19966

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,716 sqft · Manufactured · 323 Days on market

Built 1996 332 ac lot $116/sqft · 11% below area Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the breathtaking views and ultimate waterfront retreat, boasting spectacular views of the Indian River Bay. Steps lead down to the water, while the airy, vaulted family room and island kitchen flow effortlessly onto the wraparound deck, showcasing panoramic bay vistas. With ample space for guests, this property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment paired with the convenience of a boat dock at the rear. Relax in the expansive family room, complete with a gas fireplace and sliding doors that open onto the patio overlooking the bay. Monthly Lot lease 1439.00 Contingent on Park approval Bring some small tools, some paint and some Love to your new beach house.

Key facts

• 332.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($931/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.2% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 865 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $199k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,544
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -10.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34430 Quail Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+10%)	2mo	$95,000	$50	49
34651 Deck St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,476 (-14%)	7mo	$40,000	$27	40
34433 River Rd #4972	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-12%)	20mo	$45,000	$30	40
34430 Quail Ln #5436	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+10%)	22mo	$92,500	$49	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,983
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,832
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35829 S Gloucester Cir Unit 35829 Long Neck, DE	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,995	$1.33	13d	1	1.18mi
35805 S Gloucester Cir Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-03-24
   price $199,000 689-char remark

   Show marketing remark (689 chars)

   Enjoy the breathtaking views and ultimate waterfront retreat, boasting spectacular views of the Indian River Bay. Steps lead down to the water, while the airy, vaulted family room and island kitchen flow effortlessly onto the wraparound deck, showcasing panoramic bay vistas. With ample space for guests, this property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment paired with the convenience of a boat dock at the rear. Relax in the expansive family room, complete with a gas fireplace and sliding doors that open onto the patio overlooking the bay. Monthly Lot lease 1439.00 Contingent on Park approval Bring some small tools, some paint and some Love to your new beach house.

7. 2025-10-13
   price $250,000 689-char remark

   Show marketing remark (689 chars)

   Enjoy the breathtaking views and ultimate waterfront retreat, boasting spectacular views of the Indian River Bay. Steps lead down to the water, while the airy, vaulted family room and island kitchen flow effortlessly onto the wraparound deck, showcasing panoramic bay vistas. With ample space for guests, this property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment paired with the convenience of a boat dock at the rear. Relax in the expansive family room, complete with a gas fireplace and sliding doors that open onto the patio overlooking the bay. Monthly Lot lease 1439.00 Contingent on Park approval Bring some small tools, some paint and some Love to your new beach house.

8. 2025-07-19
   listed $300,000 Active 689-char remark

   Show marketing remark (689 chars)

   Enjoy the breathtaking views and ultimate waterfront retreat, boasting spectacular views of the Indian River Bay. Steps lead down to the water, while the airy, vaulted family room and island kitchen flow effortlessly onto the wraparound deck, showcasing panoramic bay vistas. With ample space for guests, this property offers the perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment paired with the convenience of a boat dock at the rear. Relax in the expansive family room, complete with a gas fireplace and sliding doors that open onto the patio overlooking the bay. Monthly Lot lease 1439.00 Contingent on Park approval Bring some small tools, some paint and some Love to your new beach house.

9. 2012-11-05
   soldstatus $80,000 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Absolute Rehoboth Bay Front-the view is incredible! Walk down steps to the water. Vaulted open family room and island kitchen opening onto a wrap around deck with panoramic bay views. Plenty of room for everybody to visit! Enjoy the home & the water! MOTIVATED SELLERS OFFERING BUYING INCENTIVES!

10. 2012-04-02
    listed $87,000 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Absolute Rehoboth Bay Front-the view is incredible! Walk down steps to the water. Vaulted open family room and island kitchen opening onto a wrap around deck with panoramic bay views. Plenty of room for everybody to visit! Enjoy the home & the water! MOTIVATED SELLERS OFFERING BUYING INCENTIVES!

11. 2010-10-11
    soldstatus $80,000
12. 2009-05-11
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$6,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$487
• After-tax cash flow: $1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Neck, DE
• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-11-05 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-02 Listed $87,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-11 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-05-11 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS