2051 Indian Hls · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$175,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1981 0.62 ac lot $88/sqft · 35% below area Est $267k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath single-story home on a spacious lot in Indian Hills Estates! This home offers a functional open layout featuring a large living area, eat-in kitchen with island, and a dedicated utility/laundry room. The private primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the Hill Country setting with mature trees, a covered front patio, and spacious storage building. This property offers plenty of room to spread out, entertain, and plenty of storage! Conveniently located just off Hwy 281 with quick access to shopping, dining, Canyon Lake, and San Antonio. No HOA and plenty of space to make it your own-come see the potential this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Huge walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.23%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,218
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -34.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7019 Broken Arrow	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+8%)	4mo	$225,000	$106	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,642
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $55,135
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,750/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $680	-5% $631	+0% $581	+5% $532	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $495	+0% $581	+5% $667	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $669	-0.5pp $626	base $581	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1197 Chisolm Trl Unit A Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,450	$1.18	44d	1	0.19mi
2455 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,550	$1.24	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-04-04
    price $175,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath single-story home on a spacious lot! This home offers a functional open layout featuring a large living area, eat-in kitchen with island, and a dedicated utility/laundry room. The private primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the Hill Country setting with mature trees, a covered front patio, and spacious storage building. This property offers plenty of room to spread out, entertain, and plenty of storage! Conveniently located just off Hwy 281 with quick access to shopping, dining, Canyon Lake, and San Antonio. No HOA and plenty of space to make it your own-come see the potential this property has to offer!

15. 2026-04-04
    price $175,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath single-story home on a spacious lot! This home offers a functional open layout featuring a large living area, eat-in kitchen with island, and a dedicated utility/laundry room. The private primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the Hill Country setting with mature trees, a covered front patio, and spacious storage building. This property offers plenty of room to spread out, entertain, and plenty of storage! Conveniently located just off Hwy 281 with quick access to shopping, dining, Canyon Lake, and San Antonio. No HOA and plenty of space to make it your own-come see the potential this property has to offer!

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $197,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath single-story home on a spacious lot! This home offers a functional open layout featuring a large living area, eat-in kitchen with island, and a dedicated utility/laundry room. The private primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the Hill Country setting with mature trees, a covered front patio, and spacious storage building. This property offers plenty of room to spread out, entertain, and plenty of storage! Conveniently located just off Hwy 281 with quick access to shopping, dining, Canyon Lake, and San Antonio. No HOA and plenty of space to make it your own-come see the potential this property has to offer!

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $197,000 New 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath single-story home on a spacious lot in Indian Hills Estates! This home offers a functional open layout featuring a large living area, eat-in kitchen with island, and a dedicated utility/laundry room. The private primary suite includes a huge walk-in closet and en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the Hill Country setting with mature trees, a covered front patio, and spacious storage building. This property offers plenty of room to spread out, entertain, and plenty of storage! Conveniently located just off Hwy 281 with quick access to shopping, dining, Canyon Lake, and San Antonio. No HOA and plenty of space to make it your own-come see the potential this property has to offer!

18. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus $183,000
19. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus
20. 2021-09-07
    soldstatus
21. 2021-09-02
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2021-09-01
    status Pending
23. 2021-08-23
    historical Active Option
24. 2021-08-05
    listed $179,900 New
25. 2021-08-05
    listed $279,900
26. 2021-08-05
    historical
27. 2020-12-04
    soldstatus
28. 2012-01-03
    historical
29. 2011-08-25
    listed $80,200
30. 2004-03-18
    soldstatus
31. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus
32. 2004-03-12
    historical
33. 2004-02-24
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,750 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,452/yr (+$121/mo · 83.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,750
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $4,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $5,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $175,000 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $175,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $197,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $197,000 LERA
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-02 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-09-01 Pending — LERA
• 2021-08-23 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-08-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2021-08-05 Listed $279,900 LERA
• 2021-08-05 Listed $179,900 LERA
• 2020-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-08-25 Listed $80,200 LERA
• 2004-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-16 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2004-03-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2004-02-24 Listed $60,000 LERA

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,750 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.