2400 E Baseline Ave #80 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$139,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 165 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sellers Considering all reasonable offers!!! This upgraded 2+ BR home is top notch! It has a hard-to-find split bedroom floor plan providing an extra room on the sunny side of the home for a den or office. Recent upgrades include shaker style kitchen cabinet doors with new granite countertops, undermount sink with stylish faucet and an RO water filtration system. The master bathroom has been upgraded to a ''spa like'' feel for total comfort (see photos). All rooms have been professionally painted along with vinyl plank flooring throughout for a seamless look. The HVAC system and water softener are less than 2 yrs old. There is a doublewide carport to park multiple vehicles that also houses

Key facts

• Owned water softener
• Separate shed
• Reverse osmosis

Tags

• AIR CONDITIONED WORK SHOP
• SEPARATE SHED
• NEW BACKYARD PATIO PAVERS
• OWNED WATER SOFTENER
• REVERSE OSMOSIS
• LONG CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment of $866 per month; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool, community spa, golf, tennis courts, and pickleball courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame; Steel frame; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Desert front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water filtration
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Vaulted ceilings; Primary bedroom with full bath; Separate shower and tub; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames; Mechanical sun shades; Storage; Zero-grade entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Peralta Trail Elementary School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #717 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 286 students, 74% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.11%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2400 E Baseline Ave #125	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,376 (+2%)	1mo	$82,900	$60	95
2400 E Baseline Ave #309	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$131,000	$101	82
2400 E Baseline Rd #248	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	4mo	$152,500	$102	77
2400 E Baseline Ave #163	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	2mo	$80,000	$53	68
3355 S Cortez Rd #28	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$77,000	$51	64
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #153	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	63
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2034	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	5mo	$155,000	$115	61
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #91	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+6%)	1mo	$85,000	$60	55
3500 S Tomahawk Rd #188	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$75,000	$60	54
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #13	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,436 (+7%)	2mo	$59,000	$41	53
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #16	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	0mo	$119,900	$79	40
3301 S Goldfield Rd #6055	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,533 (+14%)	3mo	$225,000	$147	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,202
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $43,914
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $656	-5% $607	+0% $559	+5% $511	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $483	+0% $559	+5% $635	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $629	-0.5pp $595	base $559	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	25d	1	0.09mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	25d	1	0.11mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	25d	1	0.29mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	13d	1	0.33mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	6d	1	0.34mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	5d	1	0.39mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	0.42mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.74mi
1510 E 26th Ln Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,550	$1.34	0d	1	0.93mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,795	$1.54	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,999 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $139,999
16. 2026-02-28
    price $144,999
17. 2026-01-16
    price $149,999
18. 2026-01-07
    listed $154,999 Active
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-12-01
    price $154,999
21. 2025-12-01
    price $154,900
22. 2025-10-17
    listed $159,000 Active
23. 2023-06-02
    historical
24. 2023-05-12
    price $149,000
25. 2023-02-10
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $139,999 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $144,999 ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $149,999 ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $154,999 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $154,999 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Price Changed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Listed $159,900 ARMLS