3209 Burton Ave · Erie, PA 16504

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1903 6,660 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Whether you’re looking for a place to call home with built-in rental income, or adding a solid asset to your investment portfolio, 3209 Burton Ave is an opportunity worth a close look. This classic Erie east-side duplex will be available through online auction from June 1st-June 12th. The gallery of photos include both interior and exterior views as well as a few AI mock-ups of how the interior can be reimagined with a little diy sweat-equity. The Property: This up/down duplex offers separate entrances, independent utilities, and self-contained living for each unit — a true income-ready configuration. The larger first-floor unit and a second-floor unit together offer 1,624 sq

Key facts

• Separate entrances
• Gravel driveway
• 6,660 sq ft lot

Tags

• BUILT-IN RENTAL INCOME
• SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• INDEPENDENT UTILITIES
• SELF-CONTAINED LIVING
• INCOME-READY CONFIGURATION
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Multi-unit property with 2 total units
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.15 acre with dimensions 55.5 x 120; Located in LDR zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 2 bedrooms; Unit 2: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 1 full bathroom; Unit 2: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $405/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.06%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,056
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1314 E 35th St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$114,900	$69	81
3503 Pennsylvania Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-11%)	10mo	$126,000	$87	60
2628 Brandes St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-11%)	7mo	$100,000	$69	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $42,724
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $103,944
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,109/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $617

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 46%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$1,640
Total (2 units)			$1,641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-05-30
    listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$2,109
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $7,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $55,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,109 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.