246 Carl St · Buffalo, NY 14215

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1910 4,181 sqft lot Est $188k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 246 Carl St, Buffalo, NY 14215! This spacious home offers a flexible layout perfect for comfortable everyday living. Featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and additional bonus rooms, this property provides plenty of space for a home office, guest room, playroom, or extra storage. The home features a bright and inviting living room, a formal dining area ideal for gatherings, and a large kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout. The functional floor plan offers both comfort and versatility for a variety of living needs. Additional highlights include a full basement with laundry

Key facts

• Flexible layout
• Bonus rooms
• Large kitchen

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• BONUS ROOMS
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing construction (resale)
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Exterior details: see remarks; Rectangular lot (30 x 140)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details: see remarks
• Interior features: Other features (see remarks); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Electric water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.73%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,370
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Durham Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,550 (-5%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	76
316 Wyoming Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,474 (-10%)	8mo	$148,000	$100	66
323 Grider St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (-13%)	1mo	$128,000	$90	61
92 Fernhill Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,494 (-9%)	13mo	$215,000	$144	52
368 Northumberland Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,420 (-13%)	8mo	$125,000	$88	51
48 Sussex St	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,567 (-4%)	20mo	$180,000	$115	50
51 Sussex St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,465 (-11%)	7mo	$251,000	$171	49
986 E Ferry St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,518 (-7%)	17mo	$106,000	$70	47
351 Cambridge Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,443 (-12%)	11mo	$220,000	$152	46
877 Woodlawn Ave	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,516 (-7%)	12mo	$210,000	$139	44
624 Kensington Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,742 (+6%)	8mo	$95,000	$55	42
466 Northland Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,814 (+11%)	19mo	$200,000	$110	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,614
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,980
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $443	+0% $400	+5% $357	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $337	+0% $400	+5% $463	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $432	base $400	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.73mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	16d	1	0.74mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	20d	1	0.80mi
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	25d	1	0.82mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	45d	1	0.91mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	5d	1	0.92mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	16d	1	0.93mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	25d	1	0.97mi
110 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2098	$1,100	$0.52	25d	1	0.98mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	16d	1	1.06mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.37mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	45d	1	1.39mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	45d	1	1.39mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	25d	1	1.40mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	3d	1	1.40mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	45d	1	1.40mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	16d	1	1.44mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	16d	1	1.44mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $4,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+262.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-21 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-07-12 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-07-03 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-06-21 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-06-13 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-05-29 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTEC
• 2025-05-17 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-04-30 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTEC
• 2025-04-19 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENTEC
• 2017-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,075 Public Records
• 1997-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $185 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.