14899 SW 92nd Way · Lake Butler, FL 32054

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1999 1.00 ac lot $138/sqft · 6% below area Est $212k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 1 peaceful acre in Lake Butler, FL. Completely updated in 2018, this home features all new kitchen cabinetry, updated finishes throughout, a 2018 HVAC system, and a durable metal roof for long-term peace of mind. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a newly updated vanity and new tile in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry room, a 2024 dishwasher, and the added value of well and septic utilities. Outside you’ll find a metal carport for covered parking and a small storage shed for tools or equipment. With modern updates already completed and plenty of open space to enjoy, this property offers comfortable country living with room to grow.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Private retreat
• Hvac system

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETRY
• HVAC SYSTEM
• METAL ROOF
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#681 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Butler Elementary School (math 74% / reading 63%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 1,061 students, 64% FRL); Lake Butler Middle School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 54% FRL); Union County High School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 633 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $199k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,985 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,927
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -6.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9288 SW 148th Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-8%)	6mo	$222,000	$168	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $91,786
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $283,108
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32054

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $153,209

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-203	+0% $-259	+5% $-316	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-307	+0% $-259	+5% $-212	+10% $-164
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-209	base $-259	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $199,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-03-11
   status Active 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 1 peaceful acre in Lake Butler, FL. Completely updated in 2018, this home features all new kitchen cabinetry, updated finishes throughout, a 2018 HVAC system, and a durable metal roof for long-term peace of mind. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a newly updated vanity and new tile in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry room, a 2024 dishwasher, and the added value of well and septic utilities. Outside you’ll find a metal carport for covered parking and a small storage shed for tools or equipment. With modern updates already completed and plenty of open space to enjoy, this property offers comfortable country living with room to grow.

9. 2026-02-26
   status Pending 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 1 peaceful acre in Lake Butler, FL. Completely updated in 2018, this home features all new kitchen cabinetry, updated finishes throughout, a 2018 HVAC system, and a durable metal roof for long-term peace of mind. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a newly updated vanity and new tile in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry room, a 2024 dishwasher, and the added value of well and septic utilities. Outside you’ll find a metal carport for covered parking and a small storage shed for tools or equipment. With modern updates already completed and plenty of open space to enjoy, this property offers comfortable country living with room to grow.

10. 2026-02-23
    listed $199,000 Active 756-char remark

    Show marketing remark (756 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 1 peaceful acre in Lake Butler, FL. Completely updated in 2018, this home features all new kitchen cabinetry, updated finishes throughout, a 2018 HVAC system, and a durable metal roof for long-term peace of mind. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with a newly updated vanity and new tile in the primary bathroom. Enjoy the convenience of an inside laundry room, a 2024 dishwasher, and the added value of well and septic utilities. Outside you’ll find a metal carport for covered parking and a small storage shed for tools or equipment. With modern updates already completed and plenty of open space to enjoy, this property offers comfortable country living with room to grow.

11. 2024-12-17
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union
• NCES district ID: 1201890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,908
• Composite: 48.59/100
• National rank: #2111
• State rank: #17 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Butler

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #681
• US rank: #14143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 43,700
• Population (ZIP): 12,467

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,613 people
• By 2030: 14,322 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,780 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 13,325 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 11,965 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 9,102 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+65.3 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.99%
• Current HPI: 239.3346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+237.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.