3605 Penn Rd · Greenwood, MI 49756

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1965 0.57 ac lot $69/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offering 564 sq ft of comfortable living space on a spacious 100x250 lot. Nestled in a peaceful setting adjacent to thousands of acres of state land, this property is a dream for outdoor enthusiasts, with endless opportunities for hunting, hiking, trail riding, and exploring right from your doorstep. The expansive yard provides plenty of room for entertaining, relaxing around a firepit, or future improvements. Surrounded by the beauty of Northern Michigan, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, recreation, and affordable Up North living.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on posts/piers
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Natural vegetation; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave, Refrigerator, Oven, Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Dryer, Washer, Microwave, Refrigerator, Oven, Range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in bathroom; Washer, Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($821 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.00%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,480
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -54.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $19,075
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $49,503
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49756

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $313

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $413	+0% $401	+5% $390	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $369	+0% $401	+5% $434	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $412	base $401	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $40,000 Active 594-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$789
• − Management: −$789
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $3,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Greenwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,965

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.19%
• Current HPI: 134.8693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $40,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $254 · -21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.