157 County Road 751 · Buna, TX 77612

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

1.85 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick home with metal storage building is conveniently located in town near schools. The property is being sold AS IS! Situated on approximately 1.8 acres, this tract features a large yard, positioning it perfectly for possible future development next door. Opportunity knocks for investors, builders, or anyone with vision!

Key facts

• Large yard
• Brick home
• 1.85 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• METAL STORAGE BUILDING
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,216 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Buna ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.45%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,844
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Private Road 8142	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,322 (+7%)	18mo	$220,000	$166	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,268
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $32,172
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77612

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,109/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $99,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-04-26
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-23
    price $99,000
13. 2026-01-30
    price $120,000
14. 2025-12-11
    listed $130,000 Active
15. 2017-11-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,109
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $3,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,815
• Composite: 35.83/100
• National rank: #4826
• State rank: #342 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buna

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1216
• US rank: #21222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buna, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,152

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.14%
• Current HPI: 168.7562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $120,000 BBOR
• 2025-12-11 Listed $130,000 BBOR
• 2017-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,109 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.