251 Town Ln · Amagansett, NY 11930

$2,495,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,708 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1975 2.87 ac lot Est $2000k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Prime Amagansett Opportunity on Nearly 3 Acres Set on nearly three acres in one of Amagansett's most desirable hamlets, this rare offering presents multiple paths forward - whether reimagining the existing three-bedroom, three and a half bath contemporary residence or creating something entirely new. Being sold "As-Is" this home offers good bones and character: a vaulted-ceiling living area with fireplace, a solarium-style room, a country kitchen, and an oversized one-car garage. Outdoors, a private, decked pool area feels tucked away from view, offering peaceful seclusion. While the home and pool are being offered strictly as is, the property itself allows for far more. With a ma

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Solarium-style room
• Three acres

Tags

• THREE ACRES
• VAULTED-CEILING LIVING AREA
• SOLARIUM-STYLE ROOM
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• PRIVATE DECKED POOL AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($74k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.35M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,030 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Amagansett Union Free School District (town): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #106 of 755 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Amagansett School (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 125 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $26,950/mo this rent would consume 262% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$173k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,345,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,000,068
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Town Ln	0.00mi	3/3.5	1,708 (0%)	1mo	$2,000,000	$1,171	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $470,959
• Equity at exit: $884,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $1,421,124
• Equity at exit: $1,201,841

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11930

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$979 /mo · $11,748/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,660
• Net cashflow: $6,188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,117

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,601	-5% $6,894	+0% $6,188	+5% $5,482	+10% $4,776
Rent	-10% $4,059	-5% $5,124	+0% $6,188	+5% $7,253	+10% $8,317
Rate	-1.0pp $7,445	-0.5pp $6,823	base $6,188	+0.5pp $5,542	+1.0pp $4,884

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
493 Abrahams Path Amagansett, NY	3.0	2.0	1650	$49,000	$29.70	22d	1	0.45mi
7 Spring Close Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2200	$25,000	$11.36	1d	1	0.77mi
96 Town Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$25,000	$13.89	25d	1	0.94mi
3 Birdie Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	1d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-30
   listed $2,495,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,748 · $979/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,957 · $2,246/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,209/yr (+$1,267/mo · 129.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $323,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$11,748
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,872
• − Management: −$25,872
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable income: $35,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,423
• After-tax cash flow: $65,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amagansett Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3602880
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $78,077
• Composite: 67.17/100
• National rank: #848
• State rank: #106 of 755 in NY

Livability — Amagansett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1030
• US rank: #20219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amagansett, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 842
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 842
• Household income: $123,257
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovene 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Current HPI: 541.254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,748 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.