147 Amberly Dr Unit C · Robertsville, NJ 07726

$215,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $265k · 19% under $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ground floor, 1st level, Covered Bridge 55+ community with community amenities & services galore - to include transportation, activities, clubhouse, pool, tennis and pickleball courts.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pickleball courts
• Community amenities

Tags

• COVERED BRIDGE COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Robertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#258 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manalapan-Englishtown Regional Schools School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #70 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Milford Brook School (math 51% / reading 48%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 515 students, 11% FRL); Manalapan-Englishtown Middle School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C+, #83 of 431 statewide, top 19%, 1,174 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($149k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $215k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
166 Cross Slope Ct Unit H	0.11mi	1/1.0	920 (0%)	4mo	$197,000	$214	91
159 Cross Slope Ct Unit C	0.18mi	1/1.0	920 (0%)	1mo	$257,000	$279	90
167 Amberly Dr Unit C	0.14mi	1/1.0	920 (0%)	4mo	$245,000	$266	90
167 Amberly Dr Unit H	0.14mi	1/1.0	920 (0%)	4mo	$269,000	$292	90
18 Pine Cluster Cir Unit H	0.55mi	1/1.0	920 (0%)	0mo	$265,000	$288	74
131 Amberly Dr Unit J	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+9%)	2mo	$267,500	$268	69
154 Cross Slope Ct Unit J	0.19mi	2/2.0 (+1)	978 (+6%)	10mo	$312,000	$319	63
92 Arrowood Rd Unit E	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	978 (+6%)	1mo	$300,000	$307	62
113 Amberly Dr Unit F	0.37mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+10%)	1mo	$250,000	$247	60
86 Arrowwood Ct Unit B	0.40mi	2/2.0 (+1)	978 (+6%)	5mo	$310,000	$317	58
86 Arrowood Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0 (+1)	978 (+6%)	5mo	$310,000	$317	58
91 Arrowood Rd Unit D	0.40mi	1/1.0	784 (-15%)	0mo	$200,000	$255	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,845
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,508
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07726

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,767/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $184	+0% $123	+5% $62	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $35	+0% $123	+5% $210	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $178	base $123	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
166 Cross Slope Ct Unit H Manalapan, NJ	1.0	1.0	920	$2,200	$2.39	0d	1	0.11mi
131 Amberly Dr Unit J Manalapan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	0d	1	0.21mi
134 Amberly Dr Unit F Manalapan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1025	$2,200	$2.15	0d	1	0.25mi
105 Amberly Dr Unit D Manalapan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1014	$2,200	$2.17	4d	1	0.31mi
115 Amberly Dr Unit H Manalapan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1014	$2,050	$2.02	12d	1	0.34mi
113 Amberly Dr Unit F Manalapan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1014	$2,200	$2.17	0d	1	0.38mi
362 US Highway 9 Englishtown, NJ	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	0d	1	0.59mi
131 Wellington Ct Unit 4-1 Manalapan, NJ	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,600	$2.47	0d	1	1.19mi
20 Franklin Ln Manalapan Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,465	$2.58	0d	18	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 2007-05-15
   soldstatus $135,000
4. 2004-11-04
   soldstatus $122,000
5. 1999-01-15
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,767 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,560 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,767
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manalapan-Englishtown Regional Schools School District
• NCES district ID: 3409390
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $104,596
• Composite: 52.1/100
• National rank: #1623
• State rank: #70 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Robertsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #7369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 44,764
• Household income: $149,197
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 620.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 6% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.81%
• Current HPI: 311.4961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+230.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2007-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,767 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.