658 Lucy Knowles Rd · Farmington, ME 04938

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1980 4.06 ac lot Est $173k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath Ranch home on 4+- acres that has a lot to offer including 550 ft of frontage on Wilson Stream, large farm kitchen, dual furnace wood and oil, copper plumbing throughout, poured concrete basement for possible living space expansion, southern exposure with picture window, generous garden space with fertile, alluvial soil in the expansive backyard, great retail possibilities on two well-traveled roads, large barn, equipment shed. Only 3-4 miles from route 2, the hospital and Walmart. All of this is located in a great area in every respect. Warm, diverse community with a first class public educational system and home to the acclaimed University of Maine at Farmington. Four season economy. Contact us today for more information!

Key facts

• Barn
• Four acres
• Back deck

Tags

• FOUR ACRES
• PRIVATE WATERFRONTAGE
• BACK DECK
• BARN
• STREAM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site off-street parking for 1–4 vehicles; No garage
• Utilities: Utilities on; Circuit breaker electric; Private sewer
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; One story (ranch); Level entry
• Construction: Above-grade finished area: 1,024
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Outbuilding; Waterfront on Wilson Stream; Scenic/fields view; 4-acre lot; Private water source; Rural zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — First floor
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 — First floor; Bedroom 2 — First floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Level entry; Interior entry to basement; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Mud room — First floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($221/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Farmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#18 in ME, #1,653 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, employment D-.
• RSU 09 (rural): math 78% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #88 of 112 in ME (top 79%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $200k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $163,447 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,184
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
658 Lucy Knowles Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+14%)	1mo	$197,000	$192	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $110,000
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $322,927
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04938

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2022-12-02
   soldstatus $115,000
4. 2022-11-30
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   2 bedroom, 1 bath Ranch home on 4+- acres that has a lot to offer including 550 ft of frontage on Wilson Stream, large farm kitchen, dual furnace wood and oil, copper plumbing throughout, poured concrete basement for possible living space expansion, southern exposure with picture window, generous garden space with fertile, alluvial soil in the expansive backyard, great retail possibilities on two well-traveled roads, large barn, equipment shed. Only 3-4 miles from route 2, the hospital and Walmart. All of this is located in a great area in every respect. Warm, diverse community with a first class public educational system and home to the acclaimed University of Maine at Farmington. Four season economy. Contact us today for more information!

5. 2022-09-30
   historical Active Under Contract 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   2 bedroom, 1 bath Ranch home on 4+- acres that has a lot to offer including 550 ft of frontage on Wilson Stream, large farm kitchen, dual furnace wood and oil, copper plumbing throughout, poured concrete basement for possible living space expansion, southern exposure with picture window, generous garden space with fertile, alluvial soil in the expansive backyard, great retail possibilities on two well-traveled roads, large barn, equipment shed. Only 3-4 miles from route 2, the hospital and Walmart. All of this is located in a great area in every respect. Warm, diverse community with a first class public educational system and home to the acclaimed University of Maine at Farmington. Four season economy. Contact us today for more information!

6. 2022-09-26
   listed $119,000 Active 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   2 bedroom, 1 bath Ranch home on 4+- acres that has a lot to offer including 550 ft of frontage on Wilson Stream, large farm kitchen, dual furnace wood and oil, copper plumbing throughout, poured concrete basement for possible living space expansion, southern exposure with picture window, generous garden space with fertile, alluvial soil in the expansive backyard, great retail possibilities on two well-traveled roads, large barn, equipment shed. Only 3-4 miles from route 2, the hospital and Walmart. All of this is located in a great area in every respect. Warm, diverse community with a first class public educational system and home to the acclaimed University of Maine at Farmington. Four season economy. Contact us today for more information!

7. 2020-10-01
   historical
8. 2020-06-26
   listed $150,000 Active
9. 2011-05-06
   soldstatus $63,000
10. 2010-11-23
    listed $75,000
11. 2009-11-09
    listed $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,207 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 09
• NCES district ID: 2314809
• Math proficiency: 78% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 31.00%
• Median HH income: $40,202
• Composite: 66.71/100
• National rank: #409
• State rank: #88 of 112 in ME

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1653

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,368

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,948 people
• By 2030: 27,889 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,275 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 22,770 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 18,980 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 16,816 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 44.8% · R 53.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+5.5 2012: D+18.5 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.53%
• Current HPI: 325.7666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+151.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $199,900 MREIS
• 2022-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MREIS
• 2022-09-30 Contingent — MREIS
• 2022-09-26 Listed $119,000 MREIS
• 2020-10-01 Delisted — MREIS
• 2020-06-26 Listed $150,000 MREIS
• 2011-05-06 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MREIS
• 2010-11-23 Listed $75,000 MREIS
• 2009-11-09 Listed $79,500 MREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.