5804 Circulo Dr Unit 2A · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$170,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · Condo · 148 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $111/sqft · 17% below area Est $206k · 17% under $468/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This could be and investment with 2 units or live in one and rent the other, Condo is part of the Lago Vista POA so has all the Parks and boat launches and advantages of membership. Condo with 2 Bedrooms and 2 Baths upstairs with an open floor plan and an open Deck above. The upper unit has Vinyl Flooring and Ceiling fans. Great Storage Pantry in Kitchen. And some recent remodeling in bathrooms. Efficient open living bedroom and kitchen with a full bath with Ceiling Fan and Vinyl Flooring Lago Vista POA annual Fee is $240.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Open deck
• Recent remodeling

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN DECK
• VINYL FLOORING
• CEILING FANS
• STORAGE PANTRY
• RECENT REMODELING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-701/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (5.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.3% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1256 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,835
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20800 Ridgeview Rd	1.21mi	3/2.5	1,516 (-1%)	1mo	$335,000	$221	61
21506 Horseshoe Loop	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+2%)	2mo	$329,000	$212	57
5405 Country Club Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+18%)	0mo	$299,000	$165	56
21405 Horseshoe Loop	1.41mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	0mo	$69,900	$48	53
7502 Stable Ln	1.34mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-5%)	1mo	$409,000	$282	52
5403 & 5405 Hitching Post	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,868 (+22%)	3mo	$229,500	$123	50
20506 Dawn Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-21%)	3mo	$299,950	$249	48
6110 Pokealong Path	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (+9%)	1mo	$359,000	$217	47
21522 Horseshoe Loop	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,813 (+19%)	0mo	$375,000	$207	36
21006 Greenpark Dr	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+17%)	1mo	$338,000	$190	35
7303 White Oak Dr	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-19%)	3mo	$200,000	$161	34
4105 Rimrock Dr	1.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,755 (+15%)	0mo	$385,000	$219	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-30,988
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-30,646
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1256
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$468
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $161,552

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $0	+0% $-58	+5% $-117	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-138	+0% $-58	+5% $21	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-15	base $-58	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5916 Lago Vista Way Unit B-10 UP Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,295	$1.17	93d	1	0.08mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	69d	1	0.36mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 3 Leander, TX	4.0	1.5	1143	$1,395	$1.22	13d	1	0.36mi
20507 Bonanza Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,999	$1.38	28d	1	0.41mi
20507 Bonanza Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,895	$1.31	93d	1	0.41mi
5707 Thunderbird Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$2,500	$1.72	31d	1	0.42mi
5702 Thunderbird Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,200	$1.15	16d	1	0.42mi
20601 Camel Back St Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,955	$1.22	22d	1	0.45mi
20601 Buckskin Rdg Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$1,900	$1.05	21d	1	0.52mi
6107 La Mesa St Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$1,995	$1.03	65d	1	0.53mi
5211 Thunderbird St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,550	$1.03	67d	1	0.64mi
5102 Moss Pt Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	73d	1	0.65mi
5205 Thunderbird Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,100	$1.38	73d	1	0.68mi
20111 Travis Dr Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,745	$1.62	53d	1	0.79mi
20107 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,900	$1.24	67d	1	0.81mi
20105 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	93d	1	0.83mi
20103 Park Strip St Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,795	$1.18	53d	1	0.85mi
20703 Ridgeview Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,200	$1.21	53d	1	1.19mi
21205 National Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	3.0	1930	$2,175	$1.13	73d	1	1.19mi
19903 Lincoln Cv Lago Vista, TX	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,200	$1.21	18d	1	1.38mi
4300 Liberty Ln Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	2083	$2,195	$1.05	40d	1	1.42mi
4302 Lindberg Ln Lago Vista, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,195	$1.08	30d	1	1.43mi
4302 Lindberg Ln Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	2038	$2,195	$1.08	47d	1	1.43mi
20401 Rockpark Ln Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,350	$1.22	38d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $468/mo · $5,616/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $170,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $170,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $170,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $170,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $170,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $170,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $170,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $170,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $170,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $170,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $170,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $170,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $170,000 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $170,000 Active 125 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 124 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $170,000 Active 123 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 122 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 121 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $170,000 Active 120 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $170,000 Active 119 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 118 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $170,000 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $170,000 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $170,000 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $170,000 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $170,000 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $170,000 Active 103 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $170,000 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $170,000 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    price $170,000 Active 88 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $183,000 Active 88 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $183,000 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $183,000 Active 86 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $183,000 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $183,000 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$5,616
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,630–$22,890 screening

This condo is in good condition with recent cosmetic updates, making it a solid investment with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $183,000 Unlock MLS