309 Woodlawn Dr · Abilene, TX 79603

$114,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1955 8,712 sqft lot Est $175k · 34% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming home features a brand-new kitchen with granite countertops, new cabinets, and black appliances. You'll love the recently updated electrical and plumbing systems, providing peace of mind. The home has a solid foundation and a durable roof. The interior boasts a mix of hardwood and tile flooring, ready for your personal touch. One bathroom includes an accessible shower.

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Updated electrical
• New kitchen

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,237/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 662% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.86%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Briarwood St	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,246 (-12%)	0mo	$170,000	$136	65
301 Westview Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,604 (+13%)	1mo	$220,000	$137	64
2134 S 2nd St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+1%)	0mo	$145,000	$102	62
3218 S 5th St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,452 (+3%)	2mo	$114,900	$79	60
1010 Fannin St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-5%)	0mo	$166,500	$124	57
3041 Russell Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+12%)	1mo	$224,500	$141	57
290 Clyde St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,342 (-5%)	3mo	$159,500	$119	54
3302 S 5th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,479 (+5%)	2mo	$189,900	$128	54
2116 Parramore St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,384 (-2%)	1mo	$145,000	$105	54
441 Sunset Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-10%)	4mo	$159,000	$124	50
755 Crestwood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+12%)	2mo	$259,900	$164	45
3689 N 9th St	0.75mi	2/1.5	1,264 (-11%)	3mo	$156,000	$123	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $44,332
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $158,644
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79603

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 40.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,237 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,800/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Clyde St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,995	$2.00	13d	1	0.50mi
735 Victoria St Abilene, TX	1.0	1.0	1368	$1,000	$0.73	13d	1	0.84mi
1209 Kirkwood St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,500	$1.49	21d	1	0.93mi
1481 Burger St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$2,400	$1.80	21d	1	0.99mi
889 Ross Ave Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1223	$1,700	$1.39	21d	1	1.00mi
1470 Beechwood Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1799	$4,500	$2.50	43d	1	1.08mi
1350 Lillius St Abilene, TX	1.0	1.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	13d	1	1.09mi
1685 N Willis St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,800	$1.33	21d	1	1.19mi
725 Peach St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,500	$2.16	21d	1	1.26mi
619 Poplar St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,695	$1.92	13d	1	1.35mi
3250 College St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	21d	1	1.37mi
1638 Merchant St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,895	$2.18	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-05
   price $114,900
3. 2025-08-19
   listed $124,900 Active
4. 2003-11-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,800 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,800 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$3,800
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $8,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $7,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,548
• Household income: $53,513
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 24% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.84%
• Current HPI: 184.8875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.19%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $114,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2003-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,800 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.