0075 Prospector Rd Unit 8404 Winter Interest 5 · Aspen, CO 81611

$32,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · Condo public records · 658 Days on market

Built 2001 $23/sqft · 63% below area $1969/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price for a top floor two bedroom in the Elk Horn lodge! 1/12 interest in a luxury condominium right at the base of Aspen Highlands ski area. Residence 8404 Winter Interest 5 gets you two consecutive ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. March 14-28 (may be rented, see Listor for update) and September 12-19, 2026. Seller's float week for 2026 is confirmed for January 10-17. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities including spa, pool, concierge, restaurant, shuttle. Trading privileges to other Ritz Residence Clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and Third Home give you a world of vacation opportunities! *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, calendar, and floor plan.

Key facts

• $1,969 HOA
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,214/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($221 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 658 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $32k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 658 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 25.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 167.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 575.79%
• DSCR: 26.62
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,181
• List price: $32,000
• Delta: -63.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 38.50×
• Total profit: $335,991
• Equity at exit: $28,828

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 99.70×
• Total profit: $884,307
• Equity at exit: $62,169

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$1,969
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,725
• Net cashflow: $4,299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,772

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,321	-5% $4,310	+0% $4,299	+5% $4,288	+10% $4,277
Rent	-10% $3,650	-5% $3,975	+0% $4,299	+5% $4,624	+10% $4,948
Rate	-1.0pp $4,315	-0.5pp $4,307	base $4,299	+0.5pp $4,291	+1.0pp $4,282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,969 · $23,628/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,000 Active 658 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,000 Active 657 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,000 Active 656 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,000 Active 655 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,000 Active 654 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,000 Active 652 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,000 Active 651 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,000 Active 648 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,000 Active 647 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,000 Active 646 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,000 Active 643 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,000 Active 641 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,000 Active 640 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,000 Active 639 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $32,000 Active 638 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $32,000 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Great price for a top floor two bedroom in the Elk Horn lodge! 1/12 interest in a luxury condominium right at the base of Aspen Highlands ski area. Residence 8404 Winter Interest 5 gets you two consecutive ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. March 14-28 (may be rented, see Listor for update) and September 12-19, 2026. Seller's float week for 2026 is confirmed for January 10-17. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities including spa, pool, concierge, restaurant, shuttle. Trading privileges to other Ritz Residence Clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and Third Home give you a world of vacation opportunities! *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, calendar, and floor plan.

17. 2025-03-18
    price $35,000 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Great price for a top floor two bedroom in the Elk Horn lodge! 1/12 interest in a luxury condominium right at the base of Aspen Highlands ski area. Residence 8404 Winter Interest 5 gets you two consecutive ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. March 14-28 (may be rented, see Listor for update) and September 12-19, 2026. Seller's float week for 2026 is confirmed for January 10-17. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities including spa, pool, concierge, restaurant, shuttle. Trading privileges to other Ritz Residence Clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and Third Home give you a world of vacation opportunities! *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, calendar, and floor plan.

18. 2024-08-29
    listed $42,000 Active 781-char remark

    Show marketing remark (781 chars)

    Great price for a top floor two bedroom in the Elk Horn lodge! 1/12 interest in a luxury condominium right at the base of Aspen Highlands ski area. Residence 8404 Winter Interest 5 gets you two consecutive ski weeks, one summer week and one float week each year. March 14-28 (may be rented, see Listor for update) and September 12-19, 2026. Seller's float week for 2026 is confirmed for January 10-17. All the fabulous Ritz services and amenities including spa, pool, concierge, restaurant, shuttle. Trading privileges to other Ritz Residence Clubs in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco. Affiliations with Marriott and Third Home give you a world of vacation opportunities! *Photos are stock photos, not actual unit. See 'Documents' for map, calendar, and floor plan.

19. 2019-07-17
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 2014-10-28
    soldstatus $19,000
21. 2010-02-04
    soldstatus $91,500
22. 2005-04-13
    soldstatus $180,000
23. 2004-01-07
    soldstatus $160,000
24. 2003-10-27
    soldstatus $180,000
25. 2003-08-07
    soldstatus $250,000
26. 2001-12-04
    soldstatus $171,000
27. 2001-06-14
    soldstatus $171,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,886
• − Management: −$7,886
• − HOA: −$23,628
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $55,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,394
• After-tax cash flow: $38,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-81.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $32,000 AGMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $35,000 AGMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $42,000 AGMLS
• 2019-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,137 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.