1203 Highway J · Troy, MO 63379

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your own peaceful slice of Lincoln County at 1203 Highway J. This home offers the perfect blend of country privacy and everyday convenience, situated on a private 1-acre lot with NO RESTRICTIONS! Built in 2005, the property features a comfortable layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Outside, the standout feature is a massive 2-car detached garage, providing ample space for a workshop, vehicle parking, or extra storage. Enjoy the freedom of a massive yard with plenty of room to grow, park your outdoor toys, or simply unwind in a quiet retreat, all while staying just minutes away from local Troy amenities. Whether you are looking for a peaceful country starter home or a qu

Key facts

• Private 1 acre lot
• Massive yard
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE 1 ACRE LOT
• MASSIVE 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• MASSIVE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached garage with four spaces (about 576 sq ft); Garage(s) on the property
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer; 220V electric service; Cable, electricity, sewer and water available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level
• Construction: Construction materials: other
• Exterior features: Private lot with a few trees; Other lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement: none; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#146 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Troy R-III (town): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #97 of 324 in MO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elem. (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C, #221 of 1,115 statewide, top 20%, 427 students, 30% FRL); Troy Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 761 students, 39% FRL); Troy Buchanan High (math 40% / reading 58%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 2,188 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $210k implies a 1035% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $143,825 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,765
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-44,472
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63379

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $191,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-45	+0% $-104	+5% $-164	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-161	+0% $-104	+5% $-47	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-51	base $-104	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $210,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,419/yr (+$118/mo · 229.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy R-III
• NCES district ID: 2930450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,629
• Composite: 38.01/100
• National rank: #4288
• State rank: #97 of 324 in MO

Livability — Troy

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #8339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lincoln County · 27,731 people
• City population: 27,731
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 27,731
• Household income: $91,194
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,571 people
• By 2030: 60,050 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 61,982 · +5.8%
• By 2050: 61,790 · +5.5%
• By 2075: 58,249 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 48,815 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.5% · R 77.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.19%
• Current HPI: 208.4941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+955.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $210,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $210,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1988-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1980-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.