9650 Williamsburg Dr · Birmingham, AL 35215

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Townhouse public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1986 3,049 sqft lot $45/sqft · 32% below area Est $104k · 33% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is an affordably priced home conveniently located close to shopping and the interstate. Come see this today! Enter the front door and the living room with wood-burning fireplace is to the right, with the open eat-in kitchen further along in the main level. ALSO, THERE IS A BEDROOM AND BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS!! Enjoy time on the screened back deck and fenced back yard. Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD. Case number 011-695953, subject to Appraisal IE. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to the property condition. HUD homes are sold “As-Is”. Pre-1978 Properties to include LBP Notices. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer’s closing costs, upon buyer request. All property inquiries will be answered within 24 hours. Right of redemption may apply, buyer and buyer agent should confirm all data on this listing. Lead Paint notice required.

Key facts

• Open eat in kitchen
• Fenced back yard
• Screened back deck

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN EAT IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED BACK DECK
• FENCED BACK YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.03%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,945
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -32.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $18,911
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $55,573
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $494	+0% $474	+5% $454	+10% $435
Rent	-10% $380	-5% $427	+0% $474	+5% $521	+10% $568
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $492	base $474	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Buckingham Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,013	$0.94	45d	1	0.14mi
221 Lawson Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,325	$1.20	25d	1	0.51mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	45d	1	0.73mi
252 Westwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,400	$1.25	3d	1	0.73mi
216 Sanford Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.88mi
957 Hickory Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,195	$0.88	4d	1	1.05mi
945 Elizabeth Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,125	$0.92	4d	1	1.28mi
932 Five Mile Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,175	$0.98	20d	1	1.30mi
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	45d	1	1.32mi
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	45d	1	1.33mi
832 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,225	$1.00	25d	1	1.35mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	45d	1	1.37mi
40 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,555	$1.21	3d	1	1.38mi
912 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,100	$0.93	45d	1	1.39mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	45d	1	1.39mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	4d	1	1.41mi
929 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,200	$0.73	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Here is an affordably priced home conveniently located close to shopping and the interstate. Come see this today! Enter the front door and the living room with wood-burning fireplace is to the right, with the open eat-in kitchen further along in the main level. ALSO, THERE IS A BEDROOM AND BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS!! Enjoy time on the screened back deck and fenced back yard. Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD. Case number 011-695953, subject to Appraisal IE. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to the property condition. HUD homes are sold “As-Is”. Pre-1978 Properties to include LBP Notices. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer’s closing costs, upon buyer request. All property inquiries will be answered within 24 hours. Right of redemption may apply, buyer and buyer agent should confirm all data on this listing. Lead Paint notice required.

2. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Here is an affordably priced home conveniently located close to shopping and the interstate. Come see this today! Enter the front door and the living room with wood-burning fireplace is to the right, with the open eat-in kitchen further along in the main level. ALSO, THERE IS A BEDROOM AND BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS!! Enjoy time on the screened back deck and fenced back yard. Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD. Case number 011-695953, subject to Appraisal IE. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to the property condition. HUD homes are sold “As-Is”. Pre-1978 Properties to include LBP Notices. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer’s closing costs, upon buyer request. All property inquiries will be answered within 24 hours. Right of redemption may apply, buyer and buyer agent should confirm all data on this listing. Lead Paint notice required.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $70,000 Active 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Here is an affordably priced home conveniently located close to shopping and the interstate. Come see this today! Enter the front door and the living room with wood-burning fireplace is to the right, with the open eat-in kitchen further along in the main level. ALSO, THERE IS A BEDROOM AND BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS!! Enjoy time on the screened back deck and fenced back yard. Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD. Case number 011-695953, subject to Appraisal IE. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to the property condition. HUD homes are sold “As-Is”. Pre-1978 Properties to include LBP Notices. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer’s closing costs, upon buyer request. All property inquiries will be answered within 24 hours. Right of redemption may apply, buyer and buyer agent should confirm all data on this listing. Lead Paint notice required.

4. 2020-08-14
   soldstatus $49,000
5. 2010-10-12
   soldstatus $59,900
6. 1986-10-16
   soldstatus $70,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $4,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $70,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1986-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $803 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.