14183 Granger Pointe Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$219,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $153/sqft · 7% below area Est $237k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• White cabinets
• White backsplash

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SINKS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• WHITE CABINETS
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,500 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,428
• List price: $219,940
• Delta: 1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	96
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	0mo	$214,590	$150	96
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	95
14301 Grey Pointe Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$229,940	$160	95
14304 Grey Pointe	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	2mo	$221,590	$155	93
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	78
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+8%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	77
16785 Lonely Pines Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-2%)	3mo	$184,900	$131	69
16916 Rich Pines Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	2mo	$202,995	$129	63
14409 Sugar Pines Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-4%)	3mo	$200,000	$144	63
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+5%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	61
17104 Coulter Pine Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+10%)	2mo	$234,600	$148	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-23,956
• Equity at exit: $32,794

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,763
• Equity at exit: $19,016

Cash invested: $61,583 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,299/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $219,940

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,985
• Closing costs: $6,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	0.74mi
17892 Brown Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	19d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,940 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,940 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,940 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $219,940 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,940 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,940 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,940 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,940 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $240,940 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,940 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $240,940 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,940 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,940 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,940 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $238,940 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    The Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $235,940 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    The Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $239,940 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    The Cascade's private primary suite boasts dual sinks and a large walk-in closet for ample storage. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,320
• − Property taxes: −$3,299
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,398
• Taxable loss: −$1,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$359
• After-tax cash flow: $2,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior and interior. Painting and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $238,940 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $235,940 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $239,940 Zillow