3327 Valerie Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77380

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1972 9,300 sqft lot Est $249k · 20% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located just blocks from The Woodlands, this lovely home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious living area, huge breakfast/dining room, large bedrooms and huge corner lot with lots of room in the backyard. With easy access to local amenities and top-rated schools, this home is ideal for anyone looking for a cozy and inviting space to call their own. Don't miss out on this great opportunity to put your personal touch on this rare find with Seller Fxnancxg and call it your new home! Never Flooded per Owner.

Key facts

• 9,300 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glen Loch El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 535 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 10711% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,440 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3327 Valerie Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$130	99
3223 Kentwood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-1%)	4mo	$249,900	$164	88
3531 Willie Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-0%)	2mo	$219,999	$144	84
3215 Valerie Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+6%)	3mo	$245,000	$149	81
3314 Kentwood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,423 (-8%)	3mo	$230,000	$162	80
3514 Valerie Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-6%)	2mo	$219,000	$150	78
3314 Shadowcrest Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-6%)	3mo	$255,000	$176	78
3503 Willie Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,745 (+13%)	3mo	$229,000	$131	66
3523 Willie Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	4mo	$239,000	$175	65
3310 Forest Glen St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-6%)	6mo	$199,000	$137	60
3314 Hickory Hollow Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-13%)	6mo	$245,000	$183	54
11 Hasting Oak Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-14%)	6mo	$315,000	$237	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,416
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-54,956
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77380

• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,022/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867

Max offer price $198,174

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $46	+0% $-10	+5% $-67	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-84	+0% $-10	+5% $63	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $41	base $-10	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3318 Kentwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.12mi
3451 Tangle Brush Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	825	$1,483	$1.80	45d	1	0.24mi
3419 Shadowcrest Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	25d	1	0.28mi
3302 Long Shadows St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,895	$1.14	5d	1	0.31mi
3607 Dawnwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,846	$1.18	15d	1	0.34mi
3500 Tangle Brush Dr Unit 1258 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,004	$1.42	45d	1	0.42mi
3500 Tangle Brush Dr Unit 1114 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,898	$1.52	45d	1	0.42mi
3121 Sawdust Rd The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,525	$1.26	25d	1	1.02mi
27 N Circlewood Gln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	45d	1	1.17mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 2228 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,843	$1.51	0d	1	1.29mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 2552 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,564	$1.29	14d	1	1.30mi
2500 S Millbend Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,577	$2.43	0d	34	1.32mi
333 Holly Creek Ct The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	45d	1	1.33mi
11117 Winterberry Pl The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,686	$1.60	45d	1	1.38mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,525	$1.26	45d	1	1.40mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 2518 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,883	$1.55	11d	1	1.42mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 424 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,859	$1.53	8d	1	1.42mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 2532 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,835	$1.47	45d	1	1.42mi
2495 Sawdust Rd Unit 2174 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,564	$1.29	15d	1	1.42mi
11923 S Red Cedar Cir Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,011	$1.17	15d	1	1.46mi
2301 S Millbend Dr Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	902	$1,720	$1.91	0d	23	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $1,850
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2022-08-09
   status Pending
5. 2022-08-09
   historical
6. 2022-08-01
   listed $235,000 Active
7. 2014-12-14
   historical
8. 2014-11-10
   price $129,000
9. 2014-10-27
   listed $135,000 Active
10. 2010-10-28
    soldstatus
11. 2010-10-26
    soldstatus
12. 2010-10-05
    historical
13. 2010-07-23
    listed $97,500
14. 2009-12-03
    soldstatus
15. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus
16. 2009-09-20
    historical
17. 2009-08-03
    listed $84,500
18. 2009-07-23
    historical
19. 2009-02-10
    listed $84,500
20. 2007-04-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,022 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,022 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,022
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$827
• After-tax cash flow: $703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,369
• Household income: $88,562
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2100.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.49%
• Current HPI: 260.9503
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-10 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-27 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2010-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-10-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-10-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-07-23 Listed $97,500 HARMLS
• 2009-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-08-03 Listed $84,500 HARMLS
• 2009-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-10 Listed $84,500 HARMLS
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,022 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.