6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 318-2 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$42,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 475 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition 436 sqft lot $118/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy total access to Skiing and Golf at this vacation property @ Holiday Valley Resort! Be ready to take a vacation to the rolling hills of Ellicottville and enjoy all of the amenities Tamarack has to offer. This beautiful main floor studio unit will accommodate up to four people comfortably with a queen-sized bed along with a queen pull-out sofa and includes a full kitchen with stainless appliances, bath and a beautiful gas fireplace to cozy up after a long day hitting the slopes. Owners enjoy amenities such as underground parking, private storage, three stunning pools, spa and restaurant. The Tamarack Club not only provides the ultimate experience at Holiday Valley with beautifully kept

Key facts

• Underground parking
• Full kitchen
• Spa

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• UNDERGROUND PARKING
• PRIVATE STORAGE
• THREE STUNNING POOLS
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Tamarack Club association; Quarterly association fee; Association fee covers common area maintenance, common area insurance, common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, reserve fund, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space; See remarks
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing construction
• Construction: Stone and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Ski-in / Ski-out

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 main level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air; Hot water
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($786 rent vs $42k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.09%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $2,328
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $14,240
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $605

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $42,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$1,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$754
• − Management: −$754
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $1,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This vacation property at Holiday Valley Resort is in good condition with modern amenities and a prime location. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernize and increase appeal
• Both Add smart home features — Enhance convenience and value
• Both Install smart thermostat — Energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernize and increase appeal ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhance convenience and value ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $42,500 WNYREIS