14703 Audubon Lake Blvd · Lyman, MS 39503

$269,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2021 0.29 ac lot Est $251k · 8% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is truly a step above your standard cookie-cutter build! From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the custom touches—beautiful built-in bookshelves and entertainment center, trey ceilings, 8-ft door frames, smooth bullnose corners, and charming arches that give the hallway so much character. The open kitchen features granite countertops, plenty of cabinets, and a large pantry for extra storage. The layout is open, bright, and spotless—completely move-in ready with great-sized bedrooms, spacious bathrooms, and a separate utility room. Outside, the large fenced backyard and sweet covered back porch make the perfect spot to entertain or unwind. Added gutters and privacy

Key facts

• Entertainment center
• Large pantry
• Built-in bookshelves

Tags

• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE PANTRY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,771 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14703 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,650 (0%)	0mo	$269,995	$164	96
15164 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+2%)	4mo	$239,000	$142	74
14605 Marmon Cv	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-1%)	3mo	$263,425	$161	65
14781 Davidson Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-1%)	1mo	$261,525	$160	65
18272 Cardinal Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+1%)	1mo	$199,000	$120	60
14791 Davidson Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-8%)	2mo	$242,775	$159	57
14795 Davidson Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-8%)	3mo	$225,875	$148	56
14311 Tori Dawn Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (-3%)	2mo	$224,900	$141	52
14586 Marmon Cv	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	0mo	$268,875	$148	50
14601 Marmon Cv	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	1mo	$277,075	$152	50
14785 Davidson Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	1mo	$288,375	$158	49
14570 Marmon Cv	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	3mo	$269,875	$148	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,198
• Equity at exit: $40,257

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-11,565
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,429/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,085

Max offer price $249,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-40	+0% $-117	+5% $-193	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-193	+0% $-117	+5% $-40	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-48	base $-117	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,499
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18231 Mill Cv Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	14d	1	0.25mi
14860 Audubon Lake Blvd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,850	$1.14	45d	1	0.32mi
18278 Tara Brooke Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   price $269,995
3. 2026-02-19
   price $274,000
4. 2026-01-22
   listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,429
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$6,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $269,995 MLSU
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $274,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-22 Listed $279,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+49.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,429 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.