9850 Toledo Rd · Mer Rouge, LA 71261

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1992 1,742 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on Bayou Bonne Idee featuring an open living area and a spacious primary bathroom. Exterior highlights include a screened porch, private pier, carport with exterior storage. Well-suited for a weekend retreat or fishing camp!

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#325 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Morehouse Parish (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in LA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Morehouse Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Morehouse County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $27,508
• Equity at exit: $42,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $75,820
• Equity at exit: $64,472

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71261

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $835/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $797

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-15
   listed $99,000 Active 260-char remark

   Show marketing remark (260 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on Bayou Bonne Idee featuring an open living area and a spacious primary bathroom. Exterior highlights include a screened porch, private pier, carport with exterior storage. Well-suited for a weekend retreat or fishing camp!

2. 2015-02-20
   soldstatus $70,000
3. 2013-08-26
   listed $79,000
4. 2012-01-05
   soldstatus $77,000
5. 2008-03-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $835 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $835 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$835
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $2,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morehouse Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201110
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $30,482
• Composite: 11.46/100
• National rank: #9704
• State rank: #83 of 98 in LA

Livability — Mer Rouge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #22049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,429

Population outlook (Morehouse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,631 people
• By 2030: 22,114 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,203 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 16,698 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 11,998 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 8,622 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 40% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morehouse

• 2024 margin: R (+19.4) · D 39.7% · R 59.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.4 2020: R+13.5 2016: R+11.4 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.68%
• Current HPI: 83.3317
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $99,000 NELABOR
• 2015-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-26 Listed $79,000 NELABOR
• 2012-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $835 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.