5895 White Sands Rd · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$110,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1958 0.79 ac lot Est $100k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable lake-area retreat in the heart of Keystone Heights! This cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 660 square feet of comfortable living space on desirable White Sands. Perfect for a weekend getaway, rental property, or low-maintenance full-time living. Inside, you'll find an efficient layout with a welcoming living area, functional kitchen, and plenty of natural light. Enjoy the peaceful North Florida setting while still being conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, parks, and lakes. Whether you're looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or own a quiet escape, this property offers great potential and value in a growing area.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Lake area retreat
• Natural light

Tags

• LAKE AREA RETREAT
• EFFICIENT LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PEACEFUL NORTH FLORIDA SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Currently used as single family
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Lakefront property; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $110k implies a 534% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.68%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5895 White Sands Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	660 (0%)	0mo	$100,000	$152	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,256
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,658
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $228	+0% $197	+5% $166	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $149	+0% $197	+5% $245	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $225	base $197	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $110,000 Active
2. 1977-01-01
   soldstatus $17,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+534.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $110,000 realMLS
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.