23926 Spring Day Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1977 8,398 sqft lot $121/sqft · 5% below area Est $211k · 5% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Open floorplan
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,270
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -5.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2514 Spring Day Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-0%)	10mo	$215,000	$130	86
23715 Farm Hill Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+0%)	15mo	$189,000	$114	78
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+6%)	21mo	$225,000	$129	71
23803 Ironside Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,822 (+10%)	14mo	$250,000	$137	61
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (+13%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	56
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,789 (+8%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	51
23611 Blodgett Peak Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	24mo	$275,000	$157	46
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-12%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	39
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+14%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,131
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,829
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$492 /mo · $5,908/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $205,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

16. 2026-04-03
    price $210,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

17. 2026-03-09
    price $215,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

18. 2026-02-02
    price $230,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

19. 2025-11-07
    listed $235,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers an open floorplan with tile flooring throughout, a spacious living area with fireplace, and a kitchen featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space. Flexible layout includes a dining or study area. Fresh interior and exterior paint give it a move-in-ready feel. Enjoy a large backyard with a covered patio—perfect for entertaining. Recent roof (2019/2020) and attached 2-car garage provide added value. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining. Zoned to Conroe ISD. A must-see!

20. 2025-08-04
    historical $1,680
21. 2025-06-13
    listed $1,680
22. 2024-10-07
    historical $1,670
23. 2024-10-03
    price $1,670
24. 2024-10-02
    listed $1,700
25. 2024-10-02
    historical $1,700
26. 2024-09-27
    price $1,700
27. 2024-09-20
    price $1,730
28. 2024-09-17
    listed $1,740
29. 2024-08-29
    historical $1,800
30. 2024-08-22
    price $1,800
31. 2024-08-15
    price $1,820
32. 2024-08-02
    listed $1,840
33. 2023-07-28
    historical $1,715
34. 2023-07-26
    price $1,715
35. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus
36. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus Sold 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    One story all brick in Spring.. needs a new owner. Tile throughout the home. The roof was replaced in 2019/2020. Freshly painted walls.. Fireplace-covered back porch. There is a FLEX area that could be a study or a game room Recent paint on exterior. .

37. 2021-11-16
    status Pending 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    One story all brick in Spring.. needs a new owner. Tile throughout the home. The roof was replaced in 2019/2020. Freshly painted walls.. Fireplace-covered back porch. There is a FLEX area that could be a study or a game room Recent paint on exterior. .

38. 2021-11-04
    status Option Pending 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    One story all brick in Spring.. needs a new owner. Tile throughout the home. The roof was replaced in 2019/2020. Freshly painted walls.. Fireplace-covered back porch. There is a FLEX area that could be a study or a game room Recent paint on exterior. .

39. 2021-10-17
    listed $210,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    One story all brick in Spring.. needs a new owner. Tile throughout the home. The roof was replaced in 2019/2020. Freshly painted walls.. Fireplace-covered back porch. There is a FLEX area that could be a study or a game room Recent paint on exterior. .

40. 2019-07-10
    soldstatus
41. 2019-07-09
    soldstatus Sold
42. 2019-07-05
    status Pending, Continue to Show
43. 2019-07-04
    status Active
44. 2019-06-10
    status Pending
45. 2019-06-01
    status Option Pending
46. 2019-05-19
    status Active
47. 2019-05-09
    status Option Pending
48. 2019-05-06
    price $152,000
49. 2019-04-06
    listed $155,000 Active
50. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,908 · $492/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,908 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,908
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.3% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Rental Removed $1,680 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-06-13 Listed for Rent $1,680 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-07 Rental Removed $1,670 HARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $1,670 HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $1,700 RENTLY
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $1,700 RENTLY
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $1,730 RENTLY
• 2024-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,740 RENTLY
• 2024-08-29 Rental Removed $1,800 RENTLY
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $1,800 RENTLY
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $1,820 RENTLY
• 2024-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,840 RENTLY
• 2023-07-28 Rental Removed $1,715 HARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $1,715 HARMLS
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-06 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,908 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.