10418 Cosby Manor Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1940 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property offers an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a renovation project. Situated on a spacious . 42-acre lot, there's plenty of room to bring your vision to life. With the right updates, this property has strong potential for future value growth. Whether you're looking to flip, rent, or build equity, this is a prime chance to create something special.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Renovation project
• 0.42 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• RENOVATION PROJECT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.8% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Whitesboro Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #174 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deerfield Elementary School (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 318 students, 35% FRL); Whitesboro Middle School (math 58% / reading 62%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Whitesboro High School (math 94%, 938 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,234/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.72%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5418 Walker Rd	0.36mi	4/1.5	1,872 (+3%)	12mo	$329,000	$176	66
504 Mary Elaine Dr	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,688 (-7%)	18mo	$148,500	$88	58
407 Van Roen Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-4%)	5mo	$255,000	$146	51
454 Elmdale Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,596 (-12%)	5mo	$296,400	$186	48
422 Sunlit Ter	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,710 (-6%)	11mo	$400,000	$234	46
455 Elmhurst Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,706 (-6%)	14mo	$220,000	$129	43
429 Linda View Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-7%)	12mo	$318,000	$187	40
461 Elmdale Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-13%)	12mo	$345,000	$218	40
703 Crabapple Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,634 (-10%)	15mo	$225,000	$138	40
703 Burth Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-7%)	7mo	$295,000	$174	40
452 Elmdale Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,608 (-12%)	17mo	$291,600	$181	38
15 Kraft Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,593 (-12%)	15mo	$280,000	$176	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,499
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $69,288
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,130/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $740	-5% $698	+0% $655	+5% $613	+10% $570
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $567	+0% $655	+5% $743	+10% $832
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $693	base $655	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Deerfield Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,600	$1.80	45d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-24
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,130 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,130 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,130
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $6,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitesboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631320
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,732
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1217
• State rank: #174 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $150,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,130 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.