4111 Audubon Ave · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$409,850

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,363 sqft · Land · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabinetry and thoughtful layout, this kitchen is both functional and stylish. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor make it an ideal setting for guests, extended family, or a private home office offering flexibility for multigenerational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with dual quartz sinks, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Three additional bedrooms and a versatile loft space offer plenty of room for a play area, media room, or homework station. With its smart layout, bright open spaces, and room for everyone, the Robie is designed to fit the way you live today.

Key facts

• Generous cabinetry
• Secondary bedroom
• Full bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GATHERING ROOM
• LARGE QUARTZ ISLAND
• GENEROUS CABINETRY
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• FULL BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee of $100; Community amenities: dog park, fitness center, playground; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Water heater (energy efficient)
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Residential use
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Other construction materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Smoke detectors; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Smart home features; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $252,488 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-111,046
• Equity at exit: $61,110

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-170,908
• Equity at exit: $35,436

Cash invested: $114,758 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,149
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,285

Max offer price $303,808

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-368	-5% $-484	+0% $-600	+5% $-716	+10% $-832
Rent	-10% $-800	-5% $-700	+0% $-600	+5% $-501	+10% $-401
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-496	base $-600	+0.5pp $-706	+1.0pp $-815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,462
• Closing costs: $12,296
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,850 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,850 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $409,850 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $414,850 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,850 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,850 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $414,850 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $414,850 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $414,850 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $414,850 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $414,850 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $414,850 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $414,850 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $414,850 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabinetry and thoughtful layout, this kitchen is both functional and stylish. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor make it an ideal setting for guests, extended family, or a private home office offering flexibility for multigenerational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with dual quartz sinks, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Three additional bedrooms and a versatile loft space offer plenty of room for a play area, media room, or homework station. With its smart layout, bright open spaces, and room for everyone, the Robie is designed to fit the way you live today.

15. 2026-05-05
    price $412,350

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabinetry and thoughtful layout, this kitchen is both functional and stylish. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor make it an ideal setting for guests, extended family, or a private home office offering flexibility for multigenerational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with dual quartz sinks, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Three additional bedrooms and a versatile loft space offer plenty of room for a play area, media room, or homework station. With its smart layout, bright open spaces, and room for everyone, the Robie is designed to fit the way you live today.

16. 2026-05-05
    price $412,350 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabinetry and thoughtful layout, this kitchen is both functional and stylish. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor make it an ideal setting for guests, extended family, or a private home office offering flexibility for multigenerational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with dual quartz sinks, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Three additional bedrooms and a versatile loft space offer plenty of room for a play area, media room, or homework station. With its smart layout, bright open spaces, and room for everyone, the Robie is designed to fit the way you live today.

17. 2026-04-23
    listed $409,850 Active 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabinetry and thoughtful layout, this kitchen is both functional and stylish. A secondary bedroom and full bath on the first floor make it an ideal setting for guests, extended family, or a private home office offering flexibility for multigenerational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with dual quartz sinks, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bath. Three additional bedrooms and a versatile loft space offer plenty of room for a play area, media room, or homework station. With its smart layout, bright open spaces, and room for everyone, the Robie is designed to fit the way you live today.

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $409,850 Active
19. 2026-01-16
    soldstatus $1,530,000
20. 2025-08-22
    soldstatus $11,212,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,402 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,958
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$2,049
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$11,923
• Taxable loss: −$14,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home offers spacious, modern living with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Potential updates to exterior trim and interior flooring would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $414,850 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $412,350 realMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $412,350 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $409,850 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $409,850 realMLS
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,530,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $11,212,500 Public Records