4011 King Hill Ave · St. Joseph, MO 64504

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1922 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Maintenance free exterior. This cottage home has 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. There's hardwood floors, kitchen equipped with disposal, dishwasher and range. There's a 1-car detached garage with new overhead door and opener.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Formal dining room
• Wood floors

Tags

• FRENCH DOORS
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS
• CENTRAL AIR
• WOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Bungalow / Ranch floor plan; Faces west; Residential property in fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Has full basement; Over 100 years old
• Exterior features: Porch; Partial fencing; Located within city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Formal dining area; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Basement with inside entrance (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.95%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3906 Terrace Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	992 (+3%)	4mo	$38,000	$38	88
3815 E Ayrlawn Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	984 (+2%)	10mo	$139,900	$142	67
5207 Pryor Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	966 (+0%)	1mo	$69,900	$72	66
3903 King Hill Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+9%)	20mo	$99,900	$95	65
402 Blake St	0.65mi	2/1.0	932 (-3%)	1mo	$139,000	$149	63
4009 Terrace Ave	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (-14%)	10mo	$69,900	$84	61
205 E Kansas Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+9%)	1mo	$80,000	$76	57
5325 Sawyer St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	964 (0%)	7mo	$84,500	$88	56
906 Riverview Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	832 (-14%)	1mo	$146,800	$176	54
524 E Kansas Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	6mo	$159,900	$148	45
5307 Halsey St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	844 (-12%)	5mo	$49,900	$59	37
920 Sunset Dr	0.56mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (-12%)	18mo	$89,000	$105	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $23,767
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $59,684
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64504

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $732/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $363

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5206 King Hill Ave Unit C St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1122	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.72mi
2219 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 458-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$732
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$925
• − Management: −$925
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $4,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 10,286

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 149.9895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $39,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-01 Listed $57,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-28 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-02 Listed $64,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $732 · +23.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.