12609 dess · Austin, TX 78754

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +0.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Needs TLC and some fixing, but very good condition Sale price for the house only new owner will be responsible for a lot rent to the community

Key facts

• Built 1991
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 28.6% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Manor ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #729 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.4%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.60%
• DSCR: 4.54
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,160
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10909 Reliance Creek Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-1%)	7mo	$349,000	$212	80
10708 Defender Trl	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+11%)	10mo	$419,000	$226	67
11005 Furrow Hill Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-1%)	20mo	$335,000	$204	63
10501 Seguin St	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+10%)	13mo	$419,000	$230	63
10912 Furrow Hill Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+8%)	10mo	$375,000	$208	57
10932 Night Camp Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-9%)	16mo	$369,000	$245	55
11117 Boundless Valley Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-6%)	12mo	$330,000	$211	55
11100 Boundless Valley Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-6%)	21mo	$360,000	$230	48
11345 Church Cyn	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,766 (+6%)	2mo	$309,000	$175	46
10200 Fulton Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (+2%)	15mo	$440,000	$260	45
10207 Norshire Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,861 (+12%)	20mo	$435,000	$234	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $64,875
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.02×
• Total profit: $137,677
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78754

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $1,300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,348	-5% $1,324	+0% $1,300	+5% $1,276	+10% $1,252
Rent	-10% $1,122	-5% $1,211	+0% $1,300	+5% $1,389	+10% $1,478
Rate	-1.0pp $1,335	-0.5pp $1,318	base $1,300	+0.5pp $1,282	+1.0pp $1,263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10708 Seguin St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$2,395	$1.15	13d	1	0.13mi
10513 Defender Trl Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$3,400	$2.05	18d	1	0.16mi
3508 Long Day Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	0.25mi
11216 Gadsen Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1930	$2,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.35mi
11117 Night Camp Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,399	$1.08	5d	1	0.44mi
11109 Reliance Creek Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,195	$1.46	13d	1	0.44mi
11021 Boundless Valley Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2227	$2,075	$0.93	13d	1	0.46mi
11108 Furrow Hill Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,100	$1.39	44d	1	0.49mi
10801 Mule Train Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,995	$1.20	20d	1	0.50mi
11128 Furrow Hill Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,150	$1.43	44d	1	0.53mi
2513 McDonald Way Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	44d	1	0.66mi
2504 McDonald Way Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,100	$1.32	13d	1	0.70mi
11329 Church Canyon Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,850	$1.45	5d	1	0.70mi
11216 Cameron Rd Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$732	$0.73	44d	1	0.74mi
11100 Dawes Pl Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2029	$2,500	$1.23	24d	1	0.78mi
10404 Hatton Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,295	$1.05	24d	1	0.82mi
10406 Hatton Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	0.82mi
2300 Ranier Ct Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.83mi
2413 Sisterdale Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,575	$1.39	24d	1	0.84mi
2021 Nestlewood Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,250	$1.54	5d	1	0.86mi
10210 Tildon Ave Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.87mi
9806 Baden Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,500	$1.42	44d	1	0.88mi
11305 Dawes Pl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$2,100	$1.27	24d	1	0.90mi
10602 Tildon Ave Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$1,995	$1.48	44d	1	0.90mi
10925 Tildon Ave Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,475	$1.13	2d	1	0.92mi
2012 Langdale Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,100	$1.45	44d	1	0.93mi
2010 Langdale Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,050	$1.59	44d	1	0.94mi
2016 Arborside Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,100	$1.57	44d	1	0.95mi
2113 Tin Can Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,100	$1.19	24d	1	0.95mi
2113 Tin Can Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,100	$1.19	15d	1	0.95mi
11208 Friendship Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,050	$1.11	3d	1	1.05mi
1625 Edgeworth Bnd Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,157	$2.31	2d	19	1.09mi
1625 Edgeworth Bnd Unit 1658 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,211	$1.69	18d	1	1.10mi
1701 Daleside Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,396	$2.42	4d	32	1.12mi
11204 Gadsen Ln #66 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$3,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.17mi
9600 Magna Carta Loop #177 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,000	$1.06	24d	1	1.20mi
2133 Oltons Bluff Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$1,995	$1.23	44d	1	1.23mi
1718 Roseburg Dr #83 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,350	$1.36	44d	1	1.25mi
11308 Faneuil Way Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,500	$1.24	5d	1	1.25mi
1709 Tun Tavern Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,500	$1.54	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 143-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $70,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $15,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,697
• After-tax cash flow: $11,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in average condition with moderate repairs needed. It has potential for significant value increase with updates to interior walls, countertops, landscaping, and flooring.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor interior walls — paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both new flooring — improves living spaces and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both new flooring — improves living spaces and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828890
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,255
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8641
• State rank: #729 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,690
• Household income: $90,121
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1520.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 28% Black 16% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Arab 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.76%
• Current HPI: 228.2009
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $70,000 ForSaleByOwner.com