3221 Bancroft Dr #24 · Spring Valley, CA 91977

$196,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1963 0.80 ac lot Est $206k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Park approval is required space rent is $ 891.06. Come and see this clean, warm and cozy mobile home near to Schools, shopping center, access to freeways, etc. There is a bedroom addition, have been upgraded with solar panels system, all appliances are included, a helpful and convenient Storage unit.

Key facts

• Solar panels system
• Storage unit
• Bedroom addition

Tags

• BEDROOM ADDITION
• SOLAR PANELS SYSTEM
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• STORAGE UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: 0-1 unit/acre; Living area and lot size source: Assessor's data; Park name / community identifier present
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown; Rent includes: None
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease; Land lease: $891 per month (expires June 30, 2030); Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Three uncovered parking spaces (total 3)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water heater unit (in appliances list); Sewer and other utilities not specified
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (10' x 48'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Shingle roof; Updated / remodeled; Foundation: see remarks; Year built: assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch; Has patio; Community pool; Park nearby; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: Entry level bedroom(s)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Cooling present (see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level living; Updated / remodeled condition; Entry on main level; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.9% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#627 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 158 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,360 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.80%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,632
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Sweetwater Rd #87	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	841 (-3%)	22mo	$200,000	$238	35
2515 Sweetwater Rd #32	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	800 (-7%)	24mo	$183,000	$229	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,212
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,049
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91977

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,940/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3542 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	1d	1	0.29mi
3540 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	21d	1	0.29mi
3532 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,895	$2.71	1d	1	0.29mi
9121 Kenwood Dr Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,172	$2.17	1d	7	0.30mi
9209 Kenwood Dr Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,188	$2.57	1d	4	0.32mi
3560 James Cir Unit 8 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$2,350	$2.57	1d	1	0.39mi
8836 Valencia St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$3,500	$4.21	1d	1	0.46mi
3535 Helix St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	17d	1	0.48mi
8619 Sandy Bev Ln Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	812	$2,795	$3.44	1d	1	0.53mi
8355 Golden Ave Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,999	$2.89	1d	1	0.76mi
9230 Campo Rd Unit NA Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	1d	1	0.77mi
3755 Fairway Dr La Mesa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	735	$2,433	$3.31	1d	4	0.81mi
8230 Lemon Grove Way Unit 3 Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,925	$2.41	1d	1	0.98mi
3541 Kenora Dr Spring Valley, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	922	$2,750	$2.98	1d	3	1.09mi
3038 Washington St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,700	$3.86	1d	1	1.09mi
4300 Echo Ct La Mesa, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1075	$3,125	$2.91	1d	4	1.17mi
3146 S Bonita St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	1d	1	1.18mi
3827 Conrad Dr Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,426	$2.70	1d	1	1.19mi
8110 Lemon Grove Way Unit 8110-7 Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$2,295	$3.28	1d	1	1.20mi
4242 Spring St La Mesa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,745	$3.05	1d	4	1.23mi
4302 Palm Ave La Mesa, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,825	$3.10	1d	3	1.25mi
9860 Dale Ave Unit C8 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,495	$2.63	1d	1	1.26mi
9860 Dale Ave Unit C12 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,600	$2.60	4d	1	1.26mi
3600 S Bonita St Apt D Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	843	$2,150	$2.55	1d	1	1.27mi
8075 Palm St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,750	$3.06	10d	1	1.28mi
3605 Grove St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,600	$2.54	23d	1	1.30mi
3917 Conrad Dr Spring Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,304	$2.68	1d	7	1.30mi
4350 Palm Ave La Mesa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$2,995	$3.94	1d	2	1.31mi
4341 Spring St La Mesa, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$2,391	$3.36	1d	7	1.32mi
7950 Broadway Lemon Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$3,205	$3.95	1d	4	1.33mi
3639 S Bonita St Apt 5 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,195	$2.58	24d	1	1.33mi
3639 S Bonita St Unit 02 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	10d	1	1.33mi
3639 S Bonita St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	7d	1	1.33mi
3620 S Barcelona St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	1d	1	1.36mi
4032 N Bonita St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,975	$2.82	1d	1	1.41mi
4032 N Bonita St Unit 4032-1 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,995	$2.85	7d	1	1.41mi
3643 S Barcelona St Unit 03 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,795	$2.11	1d	1	1.41mi
9211 Amys St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	805	$1,745	$2.17	1d	1	1.46mi
9948 San Juan St #4 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	924	$2,800	$3.03	17d	1	1.47mi
1624 Canyon Rd Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,355	$2.94	1d	4	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $196,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $196,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $196,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $196,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $196,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $196,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $196,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $196,000 Active
15. 2026-01-01
    historical
16. 2025-10-23
    price $196,000
17. 2025-06-01
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$2,940
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,413
• − Management: −$2,413
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable income: $4,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $6,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Mesa-Spring Valley
• NCES district ID: 0620250
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,742
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6442
• State rank: #478 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #19882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 61,064
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,064
• Household income: $99,657
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2007.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -697.99%
• Current HPI: 381.66
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $196,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $196,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listed $215,000 CRMLS