101 Dumfries Dr #101 · Dumfries, VA 22026

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition $92/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Build in 1981, this single Fleetwood makes an ideal choice for a comfortable living space . The home is located by peaceful atmosphere and convenient close to main routes, shopping centers and Malls.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1981
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.5% in Dumfries — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in VA, #789 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F. Pattie Sr. Elementary (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B+, #366 of 1,108 statewide, top 33%, 924 students, 47% FRL); Potomac Middle (math 35% / reading 61%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 919 students, 67% FRL); Potomac High (math 62% / reading 78%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,065 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 31% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.01%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,666
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -71.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3565 Maple St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (-1%)	12mo	$396,000	$308	72
119 Kings Row Pl	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+2%)	22mo	$120,000	$91	70
4 Prince William Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-8%)	8mo	$120,000	$100	70
17379 Tripoli Blvd	0.18mi	4/1.0	1,264 (-3%)	22mo	$389,000	$308	65
3746 Hedgeman St	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,324 (+2%)	20mo	$385,000	$291	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $69,253
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $163,559
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22026

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $1,456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,539	-5% $1,498	+0% $1,456	+5% $1,415	+10% $1,373
Rent	-10% $1,228	-5% $1,342	+0% $1,456	+5% $1,571	+10% $1,685
Rate	-1.0pp $1,517	-0.5pp $1,487	base $1,456	+0.5pp $1,425	+1.0pp $1,394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17360 Tripoli Blvd Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$2,790	$2.65	45d	1	0.12mi
3511 Briarwood Dr Dumfries, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,185	$2.48	7d	8	0.28mi
3421 Belleplain Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1628	$2,500	$1.54	45d	1	0.79mi
16889 Toms River Loop Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1662	$3,300	$1.99	17d	1	0.91mi
3629 McDowell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.95mi
2325 McClellan Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,207	$1.65	26d	1	1.04mi
1810 Fort Pulaski Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,500	$1.89	14d	1	1.05mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	17d	1	1.09mi
2424 Kilpatrick Pl Unit 1 Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,100	$1.59	45d	1	1.09mi
17357 Sligo Loop Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1776	$2,900	$1.63	45d	1	1.10mi
2902 Buell Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,400	$1.85	7d	1	1.12mi
17045 Gibson Mill Rd Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1170	$3,000	$2.56	45d	1	1.14mi
2819 Banks Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,495	$1.92	0d	1	1.18mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,754	$2.19	0d	1	1.33mi
3600 Jurgensen Dr Triangle, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,903	$2.11	45d	1	1.33mi
16766 Blackjack Oak Ln Woodbridge, VA	3.0	3.5	1794	$3,295	$1.84	22d	1	1.36mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,744	$2.71	45d	17	1.37mi
2940 Shumard Oak Dr Woodbridge, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,905	$2.87	0d	22	1.37mi
2819 Chinkapin Oak Ln Woodbridge, VA	3.0	2.5	1571	$2,800	$1.78	5d	1	1.40mi
2930 Wetherburn Ct Woodbridge, VA	4.0	2.5	1386	$2,700	$1.95	13d	1	1.50mi
2925 Wythe Ct Woodbridge, VA	4.0	2.5	1711	$3,300	$1.93	20d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $120,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Build in 1981, this single Fleetwood makes an ideal choice for a comfortable living space . The home is located by peaceful atmosphere and convenient close to main routes, shopping centers and Malls.

16. 2026-03-11
    historical $120,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home located in the desirable Grayson Village community. Build in 1981, this single Fleetwood makes an ideal choice for a comfortable living space . The home is located by peaceful atmosphere and convenient close to main routes, shopping centers and Malls.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,778
• − Management: −$2,778
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $16,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,972
• After-tax cash flow: $13,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1981 manufactured home requires moderate repairs to its exterior and siding, but is otherwise in fair condition. A fresh coat of paint and some interior organization would significantly boost its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior paint — Visible peeling and wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Organize kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Visible peeling and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Organize kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dumfries

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #789

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dumfries, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• City population: 42,253
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,897
• Household income: $124,318
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 571.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.02%
• Current HPI: 289.8992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon $120,000 BRIGHT MLS