7753 Bergamot Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$323,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,178 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 3,800 sqft lot $149/sqft · 5% above area Est $307k · 5% over $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room—boasting access to an optional covered patio—that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You’ll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you’ll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Dining area
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-268/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,934 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,227
• List price: $323,900
• Delta: 5.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $168,393
• Equity at exit: $291,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $485,024
• Equity at exit: $629,266

Cash invested: $90,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $319,955

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $69	+0% $-22	+5% $-114	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-119	+0% $-22	+5% $75	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $60	base $-22	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,975
• Closing costs: $9,717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.33mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.48mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.50mi
94 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	5.0	3.0	2517	$2,350	$0.93	45d	1	0.60mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.72mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.72mi
8344 Bristle Cone Pine Way Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2200	$2,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.76mi
79 W Shale Creek Cir Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2918	$4,500	$1.54	45d	1	0.99mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.30mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room—boasting access to an optional covered patio—that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You’ll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you’ll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath.

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $323,900 Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Designed with your comfort and convenience in mind, the Whitney is anchored by an inviting open-concept living space, featuring a spacious great room—boasting access to an optional covered patio—that flows into a versatile dining area and an inviting kitchen with a center island and pantry. You’ll also love the convenient main-floor primary suite, featuring an attached bath and a roomy walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a laundry room and a valet entrance off the two-bay garage. Heading upstairs, you’ll find additional living and private space with a multipurpose game room, surrounded by three generous secondary bedrooms and a full hall bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,927 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,091/yr (+$424/mo · 608.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,143
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$9,423
• Taxable loss: −$5,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $1,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $323,900 HARMLS