7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$211,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2010 5,401 sqft lot $152/sqft · 10% below area Est $226k · 6% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• New appliances
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cora Thomas El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 601 students, 58% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,601
• List price: $211,000
• Delta: -6.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7103 Lilac Manor Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	0mo	$240,000	$178	86
7206 Lilac Manor Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	0mo	$229,900	$170	84
4815 Monarch Falls Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-1%)	2mo	$239,000	$174	81
4303 Sunflower Creek Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-3%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	79
7118 Sunrise Hill Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-3%)	6mo	$249,900	$186	73
6823 Manor Terrace Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-3%)	2mo	$219,900	$164	69
6511 Canary Knoll Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+9%)	3mo	$352,129	$233	52
6115 Cherry Meadows St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	0mo	$299,990	$191	43
6111 Jasper Hill Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	6mo	$299,990	$191	42
6312 Ambrose Peak Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	2mo	$299,990	$191	42
6032 Jasper Hill Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	5mo	$299,990	$191	40
6027 Jasper Hill Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+14%)	6mo	$302,990	$192	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-46,169
• Equity at exit: $31,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,791
• Equity at exit: $18,243

Cash invested: $59,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,190/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $194,141

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-36	+0% $-95	+5% $-155	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-178	+0% $-95	+5% $-13	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-42	base $-95	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,750
• Closing costs: $6,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4607 Wheatstone Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,865	$1.08	14d	1	0.15mi
4106 Falling Trace Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1123	$2,150	$1.91	23d	1	0.30mi
6958 Chessgate Falls Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,000	$1.46	20d	1	0.36mi
4815 Highland Springs Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,500	$0.95	45d	1	0.39mi
6330 Highland Bend Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$2,000	$1.40	45d	1	0.41mi
4927 Monarch Falls Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $211,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $211,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $211,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $211,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $211,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $211,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $211,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $211,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $211,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $211,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $215,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

16. 2026-04-09
    price $220,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-03-19
    price $225,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-03-05
    price $230,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

19. 2026-02-06
    listed $237,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Discover the charm of 7015 Rosebud Hollow Ln, boasting fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean and modern feel. The kitchen is a chef's dream with new appliances and an accent backsplash that adds a touch of elegance. The primary bedroom is a true retreat, featuring a spacious walk-in closet for all your storage needs. The primary bathroom is a sanctuary with a separate tub and shower for ultimate relaxation. Outside, a fenced-in backyard provides privacy and a perfect space for outdoor activities. This property is a must-see for those seeking a stylish and comfortable home. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

20. 2026-02-03
    soldstatus
21. 2010-12-31
    soldstatus 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 1329 sq ft one story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The kitchen features custom cabinets and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, and utility room. Master bathroom includes whirlpool tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet. Sunrise Meadow offers a large park with fishing lake and walking trails for the whole family to enjoy.

22. 2010-12-05
    historical 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 1329 sq ft one story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The kitchen features custom cabinets and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, and utility room. Master bathroom includes whirlpool tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet. Sunrise Meadow offers a large park with fishing lake and walking trails for the whole family to enjoy.

23. 2010-12-03
    listed $139,900 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 1329 sq ft one story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The kitchen features custom cabinets and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, vaulted ceiling, and utility room. Master bathroom includes whirlpool tub, separate shower, and large walk-in closet. Sunrise Meadow offers a large park with fishing lake and walking trails for the whole family to enjoy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,819
• − Property taxes: −$6,190
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$6,138
• Taxable loss: −$4,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-03 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,190 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.