15823 Regal Trace Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2006 4,835 sqft lot $181/sqft · 8% below area Est $207k · 8% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

15823 Regal Trace Lane is a single-family home in Houston. It's got three bedrooms, one bathroom, and about 1,050 square feet of space. There's a one-car garage included, and you've got this large covered patio where you can just kick back and relax. It's a cozy spot if you're into a bit of outdoor lounging or entertaining. This property's got a nice little perk, It's actually been a great rental, so it's a solid find if you're thinking investment-wise or a starter home.

Key facts

• Large covered patio
• 4,835 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 10757% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,768
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -8.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,419
• Equity at exit: $48,817

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,632
• Equity at exit: $53,823

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,814/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $184,505

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1298	$1,199	$0.92	1d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: parking

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $190,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    15823 Regal Trace Lane is a single-family home in Houston. It's got three bedrooms, one bathroom, and about 1,050 square feet of space. There's a one-car garage included, and you've got this large covered patio where you can just kick back and relax. It's a cozy spot if you're into a bit of outdoor lounging or entertaining. This property's got a nice little perk, It's actually been a great rental, so it's a solid find if you're thinking investment-wise or a starter home.

16. 2026-05-14
    price $1,690

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    15823 Regal Trace Lane is a single-family home in Houston. It's got three bedrooms, one bathroom, and about 1,050 square feet of space. There's a one-car garage included, and you've got this large covered patio where you can just kick back and relax. It's a cozy spot if you're into a bit of outdoor lounging or entertaining. This property's got a nice little perk, It's actually been a great rental, so it's a solid find if you're thinking investment-wise or a starter home.

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $1,750
18. 2026-03-08
    listed $197,000 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    15823 Regal Trace Lane is a single-family home in Houston. It's got three bedrooms, one bathroom, and about 1,050 square feet of space. There's a one-car garage included, and you've got this large covered patio where you can just kick back and relax. It's a cozy spot if you're into a bit of outdoor lounging or entertaining. This property's got a nice little perk, It's actually been a great rental, so it's a solid find if you're thinking investment-wise or a starter home.

19. 2024-02-25
    historical $1,690
20. 2024-02-19
    price $1,690
21. 2024-02-09
    listed $1,600
22. 2024-02-07
    historical $1,600
23. 2024-01-30
    listed $1,600
24. 2023-11-07
    soldstatus
25. 2023-11-03
    soldstatus Sold 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Large back yard with a large covered patio, three bedrooms with shared bath. The one car garage is spacious and can be used more as another room or extra storage room. This property has been a great rental property. New tile floor in the bathroom, new paint throughout house, and blinds throughout home. Buyer to verify all measurements! No existing survey, therefore, the buyer at buyer's expense to purchase new one survey!

26. 2023-10-14
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Large back yard with a large covered patio, three bedrooms with shared bath. The one car garage is spacious and can be used more as another room or extra storage room. This property has been a great rental property. New tile floor in the bathroom, new paint throughout house, and blinds throughout home. Buyer to verify all measurements! No existing survey, therefore, the buyer at buyer's expense to purchase new one survey!

27. 2023-10-05
    status Option Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Large back yard with a large covered patio, three bedrooms with shared bath. The one car garage is spacious and can be used more as another room or extra storage room. This property has been a great rental property. New tile floor in the bathroom, new paint throughout house, and blinds throughout home. Buyer to verify all measurements! No existing survey, therefore, the buyer at buyer's expense to purchase new one survey!

28. 2023-09-16
    price $174,900 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Large back yard with a large covered patio, three bedrooms with shared bath. The one car garage is spacious and can be used more as another room or extra storage room. This property has been a great rental property. New tile floor in the bathroom, new paint throughout house, and blinds throughout home. Buyer to verify all measurements! No existing survey, therefore, the buyer at buyer's expense to purchase new one survey!

29. 2023-09-15
    listed $195,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Large back yard with a large covered patio, three bedrooms with shared bath. The one car garage is spacious and can be used more as another room or extra storage room. This property has been a great rental property. New tile floor in the bathroom, new paint throughout house, and blinds throughout home. Buyer to verify all measurements! No existing survey, therefore, the buyer at buyer's expense to purchase new one survey!

30. 2023-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,814 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,814 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,814
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$847
• After-tax cash flow: $474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $1,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-25 Rental Removed $1,690 HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $1,690 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-16 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,814 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.