1240 Oliver Ln · Cleveland, TX 77328

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1995 2.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Private 2.6-acre waterfront retreat featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home with a full wrap-around porch. Nestled among mature trees and overlooking a peaceful pond, this secluded property offers privacy, beautiful views, and easy access to Hwy 105. Perfect for those seeking country living, a weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. 2 Sheds are EXCLUDED from sale

Key facts

• Secluded property
• Peaceful pond
• Mature trees

Tags

• FULL WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL POND
• SECLUDED PROPERTY
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 105

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Gravel road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1995
• Construction: Cement siding; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard (partial fence); Cleared lot; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Jetted tub; Pantry; Separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $176,515 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,888
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $14,859
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $353	+0% $301	+5% $249	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $231	+0% $301	+5% $371	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $348	base $301	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   status $185,000 Pending 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 377-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,832/yr (+$236/mo · 511.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.