16203 Barbarossa Dr · Mission Bend, TX 77083

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1982 4,717 sqft lot $160/sqft · 33% below area Est $208k · 33% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Deal – Tenant Occupied – Cash Flow Property – Priced to Sell Monthly rent: $1550/mo Gross Annual Income: $18,600/Yr Lease until January 2027 Sold as-is, Tenant occupied & Income producing. This a prime opportunity in the heart of Southwest Houston! This charming and affordable property is perfectly positioned for both investors and first-time homebuyers seeking value, convenience, and long-term upside in the highly desirable 77083 area. Featuring a smart and efficient layout, this home offers comfortable living spaces filled with natural light, making it ideal for everyday living or reliable rental income. Its manageable size and functional design appeal s

Key facts

• 4,717 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Property located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: No bedroom count provided
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 2 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $139,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$208,122) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.2% in Mission Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mission Bend El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 315 students, 88% FRL); Hodges Bend Middle (math 15% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 849 students, 81% FRL); George Bush H S (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,605 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 35% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.96%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,122
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -32.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,467
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $41,882
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $561	+0% $521	+5% $481	+10% $442
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $447	+0% $521	+5% $595	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $557	base $521	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16126 Barbarossa Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,719	$1.56	4d	1	0.07mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,975	$2.10	12d	18	0.58mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,815	$1.68	6d	1	0.58mi
8325 Addicks Clodine Rd Unit 8362 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,799	$1.67	0d	1	0.58mi
7223 Londres Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1076	$1,720	$1.60	45d	1	0.82mi
17000 Bissonnet St Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,899	$2.00	0d	41	0.92mi
8811 FM 1464 Rd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,145	$2.21	0d	32	1.00mi
15770 Bellaire Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	815	$1,247	$1.53	25d	1	1.01mi
15770 Bellaire Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	815	$1,247	$1.53	45d	1	1.01mi
15770 Bellaire Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,680	$1.79	13d	1	1.01mi
16717 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,335	$2.24	4d	38	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $149,900 Active 778-char remark
15. 2026-05-06
    historical
16. 2026-04-28
    price $149,900
17. 2026-04-15
    price $154,900
18. 2026-04-10
    price $159,900
19. 2026-04-09
    price $164,800
20. 2026-04-06
    price $169,900
21. 2026-04-01
    listed $174,900 Active
22. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus
23. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus
24. 2005-08-10
    soldstatus
25. 2001-10-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $5,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission Bend

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission Bend, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 74,843
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $164,800 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · -10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.