353 Wharf Way · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$244,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Townhouse · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,200 sqft lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2-story new construction townhome with 1,604 square feet, 3 bedrooms, and a covered lanai, located in the brand-new Harbor of Lake Henry community. Downstairs, enjoy an open layout and a gourmet kitchen with, shaker-style wood cabinets, Samsung stainless steel appliances, including a pantry. The spacious gathering room opens to your covered lanai. The entire lower level and upstairs baths are finished with luxury vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Upstairs, you'll find three spacious bedrooms including your owner's suite complete with a walk-in wardrobe, linen closet, and a private en-suite bath with dual vanities and a tiled shower.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Walk-in wardrobe
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED LANAI
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SHAKER-STYLE WOOD CABINETS
• PANTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WALK-IN WARDROBE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,675 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,900
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -4.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
373 Wharf Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,604 (0%)	1mo	$255,900	$160	99
611 Ituna Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+2%)	0mo	$298,900	$182	90
724 Bayside Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-7%)	0mo	$283,680	$191	82
549 Ituna Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-8%)	0mo	$280,900	$190	78
6561 Chinaberry Dr NE	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-0%)	0mo	$135,000	$85	77
572 Ituna Cir	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+7%)	0mo	$331,710	$193	75
560 Ituna Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+25%)	1mo	$350,050	$175	65
1108 Brenton Manor Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-1%)	1mo	$278,000	$176	60
1228 Denali Dr	1.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+6%)	0mo	$285,000	$167	47
5716 Lakeside Landings Blvd	1.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+9%)	0mo	$249,000	$142	43
832 Cambridge Dr	0.87mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,980 (+23%)	0mo	$336,000	$170	35
452 Sweetwater Way	1.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+14%)	0mo	$347,900	$190	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-51,619
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-65,146
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $244,900 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,269

Max offer price $221,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-75	+0% $-160	+5% $-244	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-241	+0% $-160	+5% $-78	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-97	base $-160	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2850 West St Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,708	$1.86	9d	20	0.59mi
5525 Forest Ridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,100	$1.14	6d	1	0.60mi
178 Andreas St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1938	$1,921	$0.99	9d	1	0.70mi
1065 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	0d	1	0.71mi
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	110d	1	0.72mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	9d	1	0.75mi
5872 Royal Hills Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,200	$1.27	9d	1	0.81mi
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	107d	1	0.87mi
877 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,875	$1.02	119d	1	0.89mi
836 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.90mi
275 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,950	$1.25	9d	1	0.97mi
308 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	71d	1	1.02mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	119d	1	1.07mi
279 Sunfish Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	119d	1	1.11mi
1127 Seedorf Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,100	$1.05	7d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Catalina plan)Spec inventory
• Construction: Living area approximately 1604
• Exterior features: Address: 353 Wharf Way, Winter Haven, FL 33881

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec-built Catalina plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $244,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $244,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $244,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $244,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $244,900 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 244 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 243 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 242 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 241 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 240 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 239 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 238 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 237 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 236 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 235 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 234 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $249,900 Active 233 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $249,900 Active 232 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 231 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 230 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 229 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 228 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 227 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 225 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 224 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 223 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 222 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 221 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 220 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 219 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 218 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 217 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 216 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 213 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 212 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 211 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 210 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 208 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 206 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$6,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior walls and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Alfred Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Catalina plan)Spec inventory
• Construction: Living area approximately 1604
• Exterior features: Address: 353 Wharf Way, Winter Haven, FL 33881

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec-built Catalina plan