353 Wharf Way · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Townhouse · 221 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $156/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, open-layout townhome for sale in Winter Haven, FL! Downstairs, enjoy an open living area with a spacious gathering room, plus a convenient powder room, flex space, and a private covered lanai. Upstairs, relax in your private owner's suite with a large walk-in wardrobe and a private en-suite bathroom including dual vanities, a decorative tiled shower, closeted toilet, and linen closet. Two large secondary bedrooms share a dual-vanity hall bath and linen closet.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in wardrobe
• Owner's suite

Tags

• PRIVATE COVERED LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN WARDROBE
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES
• DECORATIVE TILED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Winter Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,151/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,104 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,900
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -3.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Nemo Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-4%)	0mo	$259,900	$168	89
741 Bayside Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-4%)	0mo	$305,280	$198	86
521 Ituna Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+25%)	0mo	$329,200	$164	67
488 Ituna Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+25%)	0mo	$340,650	$170	64
679 Sweetwater Way E	1.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (+5%)	0mo	$239,000	$141	48
5872 Royal Hills Cir	0.79mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (+8%)	0mo	$290,000	$168	45
601 Sweetwater Way	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+24%)	0mo	$330,000	$165	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,156
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-48,368
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,900 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $245,894

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $59	+0% $-28	+5% $-114	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-113	+0% $-28	+5% $57	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $36	base $-28	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	63d	1	0.72mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	52d	1	0.75mi
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	61d	1	0.87mi
877 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,875	$1.02	72d	1	0.89mi
308 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	25d	1	1.02mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	72d	1	1.07mi
279 Sunfish Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	72d	1	1.11mi
1127 Seedorf Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,400	$1.20	52d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Catalina plan)Spec inventory
• Construction: Living area approximately 1604
• Exterior features: Address: 353 Wharf Way, Winter Haven, FL 33881

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec-built Catalina plan

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,900 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-07-19
    days on market $249,900 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 198 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 197 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 191 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 189 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 188 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 187 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 185 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 184 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 183 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 182 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 181 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 180 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 179 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 178 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 176 DOM
35. 2026-06-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 174 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 173 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 170 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,900 Active 169 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 168 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 167 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 165 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 156 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 154 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 153 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 152 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,100
• After-tax cash flow: $768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior walls and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Alfred Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Catalina plan)Spec inventory
• Construction: Living area approximately 1604
• Exterior features: Address: 353 Wharf Way, Winter Haven, FL 33881

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec-built Catalina plan