2631 Secret · Running Springs, CA 92382

$189,990

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1927 5,730 sqft lot Est $307k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Is A Fixer. Bring Your Tool Box. Needs Lots Of Work

Key facts

• 5,730 sq ft lot
• Built 1927
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mountainous, suburban community; Directions: From 18 Hwy, exit Palo Alto Way, then go West (left) onto Secret Dr. House on right

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: House structure; Treed lot; Back yard; Park nearby; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Fireplace located in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on main level; Main level entry; Kitchen fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($893/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $190k implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,152 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,900
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2398 Whispering Pines Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+2%)	9mo	$320,000	$476	72
32135 West Dr	0.23mi	2/1.5 (+1)	700 (+6%)	1mo	$315,000	$450	71
32146 Fern Dr	0.29mi	1/1.0	644 (-2%)	17mo	$225,000	$349	69
2551 Whispering Pines Dr	0.09mi	1/1.0	588 (-11%)	14mo	$330,000	$561	66
2546 Whispering Pines Dr	0.11mi	1/1.0	728 (+10%)	16mo	$340,000	$467	65
31615 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	662 (+0%)	23mo	$280,000	$423	53
31721 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+9%)	10mo	$335,000	$465	51
2430 Whispering Pines Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0 (+1)	569 (-14%)	15mo	$364,900	$641	48
2389 Rim Of The World Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	714 (+8%)	13mo	$209,500	$293	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,115
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,923
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92382

• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,004/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2410 Secret Dr Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,550	$2.70	24d	1	0.30mi
32132 West Dr Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	44d	1	0.30mi
2620 Dade Dr Unit 2 Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,400	$2.80	44d	1	0.33mi
31379 Lightfoot Way Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	44d	1	0.69mi
31144 All View Dr Unit A Running Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,800	$2.77	44d	1	1.10mi
2490 Fern Dr Running Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,849	$2.64	44d	1	1.25mi
32868 Deer Ln Running Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	650	$1,650	$2.54	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 464-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $189,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,004 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,004
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $1,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Running Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #11396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Running Springs, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $81,493
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 255.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.08%
• Current HPI: 341.4318
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+544.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $189,990 CRMLS
• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $189,990 CRMLS
• 2012-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-08 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MRCAOR
• 2012-11-08 Sold (MLS) $32,000 CRMLS
• 2010-10-27 Listed $39,000 MRCAOR
• 2010-10-27 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 2004-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-20 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CRMLS
• 2004-01-19 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 1997-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1989-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,004 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.