1021 NW 242nd Dr · Newberry, FL 32669

$301,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,969 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Indulge in modern living with this 3-bedroom home featuring an open layout and stainless-steel appliances. The layout of the home connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen, equipped with stainless-steel built-in dishwasher, range, and microwave, becomes a stylish focal point, blending form and function. The laundry room comes equipped with a washer and dryer hook up. With three bedrooms thoughtfully integrated into the layout, this home offers both comfort and contemporary elegance. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. The Aria i

Key facts

• Built in dishwasher
• Open layout
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT IN DISHWASHER
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOK UP
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Oak View Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 964 students, 49% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,705 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,410
• Equity at exit: $45,028

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,617
• Equity at exit: $26,111

Cash invested: $84,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,584
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,530/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $288,125

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $9	+0% $-96	+5% $-200	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-200	+0% $-96	+5% $9	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-19	base $-96	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,498
• Closing costs: $9,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 NW 248th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	22d	1	0.40mi
2181 NW 247th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,475	$1.40	22d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $301,990
3. 2026-04-08
   price $312,990
4. 2026-03-17
   price $317,990
5. 2026-02-18
   listed $319,070 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,916
• − Property taxes: −$4,530
• − Insurance: −$1,510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,785
• Taxable loss: −$6,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,502
• After-tax cash flow: $352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, and kitchen and bathroom upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Flooring — Upgrading the flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern, energy-efficient appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Upgrading the flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $301,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $312,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $317,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $319,070 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid