Tyndall Plan · Panama City, FL 32405

$244,850

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Townhouse · 212 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Tyndall! Step into the entry from your covered front porch and rejoice in the open concept layout, creating the perfect space for entertaining friends or gathering with family. Off the kitchen is a secondary bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or a home office! Upstairs you'll find a spacious, secluded primary suite with generous walk-in closet and dual vanity in the private ensuite bathroom. The third bedroom is on the opposite side of the house and also features a walk-in closet and its own full bathroom! Head back downstairs to pop on a load of laundry and retreat to your semi-private patio (complete with storage!) and sip a glass of sweet tea. Each Energy Tech certified home in Bay Crest includes quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury plank flooring in main living areas that will leave you saying "wow!". Enjoy a low maintenance, residential lifestyle as lawn care and exterior maintenance are a complimentary service. Situated right on HWY 390 and 368, Bay Crest is the perfect place to call home. Easily access Gulf Coast Medical Center, St. Andrews State Park, boutique shopping, sandy white beaches, restaurants AND MORE all within minutes! Come tour today and see our unmatched lifestyle. Space to make your new house a home. That's Built Here.

Key facts

• Secondary bedroom
• Walk-in closet
• Dual vanity

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $244,850 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,403.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 598 students, 59% FRL); Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 442 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,279 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,403
• List price: $244,850
• Delta: -7.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2921 Marron Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	0mo	$350,000	$223	61
824 Jeremy Ln	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+1%)	1mo	$305,000	$204	58
3113 Veranda Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+18%)	0mo	$425,000	$245	53
1725 Calamint St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+19%)	1mo	$465,000	$265	52
2416 Blue Daze Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (-12%)	1mo	$365,000	$282	48
2416 Blue Daze Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (-12%)	1mo	$365,000	$282	48
2412 Saint Andrews Blvd #3	1.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-5%)	0mo	$220,000	$157	48
2315 Lavender Cir	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,295 (-12%)	1mo	$351,500	$271	46
602 Gabriel St	1.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,331 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$210	38
2912 Briarcliff Rd	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+15%)	1mo	$370,000	$218	35
2501 Rollins Ave	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-15%)	1mo	$250,000	$200	35
1914 Calhoun Ave	1.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (-16%)	1mo	$127,000	$103	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,075
• Equity at exit: $39,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-75,652
• Equity at exit: $22,861

Cash invested: $74,033 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $269,900 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 212 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,966/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $242,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-59	+0% $-150	+5% $-242	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-234	+0% $-150	+5% $-66	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-83	base $-150	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,101
• Closing costs: $7,932
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1117 Blazing Star St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	70d	1	0.45mi
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	62d	26	0.49mi
3625 Frankford Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,877	$1.99	62d	29	0.73mi
1345 Capri Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,925	$1.22	62d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-07-27
   days on market $244,850 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-07-25
   days on market $244,850 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $244,850 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $244,850 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $244,850 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $244,850 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $244,850 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $244,850 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-07-14
   days on market $244,850 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $244,850 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-07-12
    days on market $244,850 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-07-11
    days on market $244,850 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    days on market $244,850 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    days on market $244,850 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-07-08
    days on market $244,850 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-07-07
    days on market $244,850 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $244,850 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-07-05
    days on market $244,850 Active 190 DOM
19. 2026-07-04
    days on market $244,850 Active 189 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $244,850 Active 188 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $244,850 Active 187 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $244,850 Active 186 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $244,850 Active 185 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $244,850 Active 184 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,850 Active 183 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $244,850 Active 182 DOM
27. 2026-06-27
    days on market $244,850 Active 181 DOM
28. 2026-06-25
    days on market $244,850 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-06-23
    days on market $244,850 Active 177 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $244,850 Active 176 DOM
31. 2026-06-19
    days on market $244,850 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-06-18
    days on market $244,850 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-06-17
    days on market $244,850 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-06-16
    days on market $244,850 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-06-15
    days on market $244,850 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-06-14
    days on market $244,850 Active 168 DOM
37. 2026-06-13
    days on market $244,850 Active 167 DOM
38. 2026-06-10
    days on market $244,850 Active 165 DOM
39. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,850 Active 164 DOM
40. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,850 Active 163 DOM
41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,850 Active 162 DOM
42. 2026-06-05
    days on market $244,850 Active 159 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,850 Active 158 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,850 Active 157 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,850 Active 156 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,850 Active 155 DOM
47. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,850 Active 154 DOM
48. 2025-12-28
    listed $244,850 Active 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Welcome to the Tyndall! Step into the entry from your covered front porch and rejoice in the open concept layout, creating the perfect space for entertaining friends or gathering with family. Off the kitchen is a secondary bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or a home office! Upstairs you'll find a spacious, secluded primary suite with generous walk-in closet and dual vanity in the private ensuite bathroom. The third bedroom is on the opposite side of the house and also features a walk-in closet and its own full bathroom! Head back downstairs to pop on a load of laundry and retreat to your semi-private patio (complete with storage!) and sip a glass of sweet tea. Each Energy Tech certified home in Bay Crest includes quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury plank flooring in main living areas that will leave you saying "wow!". Enjoy a low maintenance, residential lifestyle as lawn care and exterior maintenance are a complimentary service. Situated right on HWY 390 and 368, Bay Crest is the perfect place to call home. Easily access Gulf Coast Medical Center, St. Andrews State Park, boutique shopping, sandy white beaches, restaurants AND MORE all within minutes! Come tour today and see our unmatched lifestyle. Space to make your new house a home. That's Built Here.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,811
• − Property taxes: −$3,966
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,038
• − Management: −$2,038
• − Depreciation: −$7,692
• Taxable loss: −$6,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,390–$22,170 screening

This Tyndall townhouse is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs or maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Northside Elementary School D- FL #1,191/2,144 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Jinks Middle School F FL #348/571 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Listed $244,850 Zillow