2420 Baker Rd · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37072

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1988 3.22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on 3.22 acres in Goodlettsville, this property offers a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their own improvements. The home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,840 square feet of living space. The spacious lot provides privacy and plenty of room for outdoor use while still offering convenient access to Nashville, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Property is being sold AS-IS. Seller will make no repairs. Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify all pertinent information.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• 3.22 acres
• 3.22 acre lot

Tags

• 3.22 ACRES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO NASHVILLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered parking spaces; Two-car garage with side-facing garage door
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured on land (residential); One story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Existing year built
• Exterior features: Located on a property with creek frontage; 3.22-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No built-in heating; No built-in cooling
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goodlettsville Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 389 students, 0% FRL); Hunters Lane High (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #321 of 332 statewide, top 97%, 1,466 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $220k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $594,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2376 Baker Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-10%)	23mo	$533,000	$323	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,745
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $30,803
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37072

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,081/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Obryan St Goodlettsville, TN	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	23d	1	1.08mi
7378 Smiley Hollow Rd Goodlettsville, TN	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 534-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,081 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,081 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,081
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $4,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Sumner County · 196,654 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 32,208
• Household income: $78,123
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1013.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.17%
• Current HPI: 284.0523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+214.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $220,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,081 · +89.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.