207 2nd St · Erwin, NC 28339

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1934 6,970 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, kitchen with refrigerator, washing machine, and dryer, screened porch and large yard. This property has most recently rented for $750 per month. Rental history is available. Priced below appraisal value.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Screened porch
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH REFRIGERATOR
• SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.16 acre (about 6,970 sq ft); Zoning: R6
• Financial info: Tax amount listed (financial details otherwise excluded)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on site
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Dryer; Free-Standing Electric Range; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$172,368) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.4% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#328 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coats-Erwin Middle (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #312 of 475 statewide, top 66%, 606 students, 68% FRL); Triton High (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D-, #350 of 535 statewide, top 66%, 1,287 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.60%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,368
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Hope St	0.48mi	2/1.0	754 (-0%)	10mo	$172,000	$228	69
513 Wondertown Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0	832 (+10%)	1mo	$170,000	$204	62
102 Pope St	0.29mi	2/1.0	849 (+12%)	9mo	$175,000	$206	58
608 Wondertown Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	672 (-11%)	24mo	$165,000	$246	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $25,653
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $69,947
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28339

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $565

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1008 Denim Dr Erwin, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	23d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $69,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $69,900 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    listed $69,900 Active
11. 2026-05-07
    historical
12. 2025-11-25
    listed $75,000 Active
13. 2025-11-04
    price $75,000
14. 2025-09-19
    status Active
15. 2025-09-19
    status Active
16. 2025-09-04
    status Pending
17. 2025-09-04
    historical
18. 2025-09-03
    status Pending
19. 2025-09-03
    historical
20. 2025-06-02
    listed $88,000 Active
21. 2025-06-02
    listed $88,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $5,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Erwin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #13389

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erwin, NC
• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.95%
• Current HPI: 220.5601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $69,900 TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $75,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $75,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-09-04 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-09-03 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $88,000 TMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $88,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.