Violet III Plan · Burleson, TX 76028

$471,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,628 sqft · SingleFamily · 560 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Violet III floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Features of this plan include a formal dining room, covered porch, large family room, study, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, primary suite with an ensuite bathroom and a walk-in closet, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large family room
• Custom cabinets

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COVERED PORCH
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $471,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $488,046.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $472k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Joshua El (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #189 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 683 students, 28% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 883 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 560 days — a 12% lower offer ($415k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $286,625 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 560 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,046
• List price: $471,990
• Delta: -3.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2641 Lee St	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,519 (-4%)	1mo	$499,900	$198	82
328 Alina St	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,589 (-2%)	4mo	$484,990	$187	79
2636 Lila St	0.17mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,527 (-4%)	3mo	$499,900	$198	77
305 Aurora Hills Trl	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-4%)	5mo	$449,900	$178	76
228 Prairie Oak Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+0%)	2mo	$435,000	$165	74
2605 Lila St	0.21mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,873 (+9%)	4mo	$524,900	$183	64
352 Alina Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,278 (-13%)	1mo	$469,990	$206	63
320 Ben Thomas St	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,336 (-11%)	6mo	$415,000	$178	61
217 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,453 (-7%)	2mo	$435,000	$177	60
340 Alina St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,253 (-14%)	5mo	$439,900	$195	58
200 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,384 (-9%)	4mo	$398,000	$167	56
2729 Ben Thomas St	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,253 (-14%)	3mo	$417,500	$185	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-153,115
• Equity at exit: $72,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-237,978
• Equity at exit: $42,197

Cash invested: $136,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.7 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $455,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 883
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,559
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$610 /mo · $7,321/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-1,108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,269

Max offer price $327,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-771	-5% $-940	+0% $-1,108	+5% $-1,277	+10% $-1,446
Rent	-10% $-1,335	-5% $-1,222	+0% $-1,108	+5% $-995	+10% $-882
Rate	-1.0pp $-863	-0.5pp $-984	base $-1,108	+0.5pp $-1,235	+1.0pp $-1,364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,012
• Closing costs: $14,641
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2520 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,260	$1.17	0d	1	0.23mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	73d	1	0.24mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	71d	1	0.24mi
2740 Lisa Maria St Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,900	$1.58	2d	1	0.27mi
2760 Richard St Burleson, TX	4.0	4.0	3336	$3,900	$1.17	16d	1	0.31mi
2435 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	3.0	3064	$2,675	$0.87	0d	1	0.32mi
2752 Elmwood Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,800	$1.38	93d	1	0.39mi
2816 Oakdale Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	28d	1	0.69mi
2816 Oakdale Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	31d	1	0.69mi
1733 Trinity St Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$4,900	$2.21	52d	1	1.27mi
1060 Wildwood Dr Joshua, TX	3.0	2.0	2267	$3,166	$1.40	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $471,990 Active 560 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $471,990 Active 558 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $471,990 Active 557 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $471,990 Active 556 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $471,990 Active 555 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $471,990 Active 552 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $471,990 Active 550 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $471,990 Active 549 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $471,990 Active 547 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $471,990 Active 545 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $471,990 Active 544 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $471,990 Active 543 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $471,990 Active 542 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $471,990 Active 541 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $471,990 Active 539 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $471,990 Active 538 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $471,990 Active 537 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $471,990 Active 536 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $471,990 Active 535 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $471,990 Active 534 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $471,990 Active 533 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $471,990 Active 532 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $471,990 Active 531 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $471,990 Active 530 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $471,990 Active 528 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $471,990 Active 527 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $471,990 Active 526 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $471,990 Active 525 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $471,990 Active 524 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $471,990 Active 523 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $471,990 Active 522 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $471,990 Active 521 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $471,990 Active 520 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $471,990 Active 519 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $471,990 Active 518 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $471,990 Active 517 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $471,990 Active 515 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $471,990 Active 513 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $471,990 Active 512 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $471,990 Active 509 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $471,990 Active 508 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $471,990 Active 507 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $471,990 Active 506 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $471,990 Active 504 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $471,990 Active 500 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $471,990 Active 499 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $471,990 Active 498 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $471,990 Active 495 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $471,990 Active 494 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $471,990 Active 493 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,338
• − Property taxes: −$7,321
• − Insurance: −$2,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,752
• − Management: −$2,752
• − Depreciation: −$14,198
• Taxable loss: −$22,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Violet III Plan home in Burleson, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates to paint and landscaping, and potential resale value gains from kitchen and bathroom upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading fixtures can attract more buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Joshua El B+ TX #189/4,322 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle R C Loflin Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Joshua H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 179,678 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-25 Listed $471,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-30 Listed $471,990 Zillow