16014 Valentine Ave · Belton, MO 64012

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1952 0.34 ac lot Est $176k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Vinyl windows
• Private oasis

Tags

• HUGE YARD
• PRIVATE OASIS
• VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One-story (ranch)
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Property age: 51–75 years
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 14,985 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($503/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilckens Steam Acad @Hillcrest (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #405 of 1,115 statewide, top 37%, 474 students, 37% FRL); Belton Middle School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 639 students, 46% FRL); Belton High (math 27% / reading 59%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,374 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,359 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,204
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16014 Valentine Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	858 (-1%)	0mo	$165,000	$192	98
7010 E 160th St	0.17mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	9mo	$200,000	$238	79
16000 Lawrence Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (-3%)	3mo	$85,000	$101	78
16110 Hight Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	10mo	$150,000	$179	65
16102 Allen Ave	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	920 (+6%)	21mo	$115,000	$125	48
15707 Ann Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+5%)	23mo	$210,000	$230	45
15707 Allen Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	23mo	$167,900	$206	44
15513 Allen Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	12mo	$195,000	$203	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,098
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,181
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $89	+0% $42	+5% $-5	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-12	+0% $42	+5% $95	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $84	base $42	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15319 Grand Summit Ext Grandview, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	45d	1	0.90mi
301 Towne Center Dr Belton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	3d	9	1.02mi
6407 E 163rd St Belton, MO	1.0	1.0	782	$1,492	$1.91	3d	4	1.03mi
6205 E 152 Ter Unit B Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	9d	1	1.21mi
6007 E 152nd St Grandview, MO	1.0	1.0	580	$725	$1.25	6d	1	1.26mi
6003 E 151st Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$975	$1.50	45d	1	1.32mi
8201 Spring Valley Rd Apt 13D Belton, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2025-11-15
   historical
4. 2025-10-23
   listed $135,000 Active
5. 2021-05-06
   historical
6. 2021-03-04
   price $85,000
7. 2021-03-04
   listed $850,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$563
• After-tax cash flow: $1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-80.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $165,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $135,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-04 Price Changed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-04 Listed $850,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,121 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.